Julio Urias led in wins, but Max Scherzer had Box-Toppers’ highest Sincere Win Differential
Julio Urias of the Dodgers, who led all pitchers in wins in 2021 with 20, also ranked fourth among all players in Box-Toppers points with 19.1.
Wins leaders’ Box-Toppers points
Here is how 2021 wins leaders fared in Box-Toppers points. Players are listed by most wins. Also shown are their 2021 Box-Toppers points (BTP) and their rank in Box-Toppers points among all players.| Player | Team | W | BTP | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julio Urias | Dodgers | 20 | 19.1 | 4 |
| 2 | Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | 17 | 12.0 | 29 |
| 3 | Gerrit Cole | Yankees | 16 | 22.4 | 2 |
| 3 | Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 16 | 16.7 | 10 |
| 5 | Max Scherzer | Dodgers | 15 | 25.1 | 1 |
| 6 | Zack Wheeler | Phillies | 14 | 21.1 | 3 |
| 6 | Kevin Gausman | Giants | 14 | 13.7 | 18 |
| 6 | Charlie Morton | Braves | 14 | 12.7 | 25 |
| 6 | Max Fried | Braves | 14 | 11.8 | 30 |
| 6 | Chris Flexen | Mariners | 14 | 11.7 | 34 |
| 6 | Hyun Jin Ryu | Blue Jays | 14 | 9.0 | 58 |
| 6 | Steven Matz | Blue Jays | 14 | 6.7 | 119 |
| 6 | Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 14 | 4.0 | 228 |
Among the 13 pitchers with 14 or more wins in 2021, Urias is one of five who were among the top 10 in Box-Toppers points for the season. (See Wins leaders’ Box-Toppers points chart elsewhere on this page for details.)
Meanwhile, Max Scherzer of the Dodgers, who led all players in Box-Toppers points in 2021, also had Box-Toppers’ highest Sincere Win Differential (SWD) of +10.1, which is figured by subtracting a pitchers’ win total from their Box-Toppers point total. Scherzer had 25.1 Box-Toppers points and 15 wins, resulting in the +10.1 SWD. (See Box-Toppers’ sincere win differential chart elsewhere on this page for details.)
Not all wins are created equal. Sometimes pitchers pick up a win in a game in which they perform poorly. Sometimes pitchers perform extraordinarily well and do not pick up the win. The SWD compares their Box-Toppers point total to their win total, giving a more reflective statistic of a pitcher’s success.
Scherzer and Urias were two of the five top 13 wins leaders who were among the top 10 in overall Box-Toppers points:
Box-Toppers’ sincere win differential leaders
Max Scherzer of the Dodgers had Box-Toppers’ highest sincere win differential (SWD) of any pitcher in 2021. Scherzer had an SWD of +10.1, figured by subtracting his win (W) total (15) from his Box-Toppers point (BTP) total (25.1). The higher the SWD, the more sincere and deserved are a pitcher’s wins. Here are the SWDs of all 169 pitchers with either seven or more wins or 5.0 or more Box-Toppers points in 2021, ranked from highest to lowest SWD. (Also shown is each player’s Box-Toppers-to-win ratio or BTW, figured by taking a pitcher’s Box-Toppers point total and dividing it by their win total.)| Player | Team | wins | BTP | SWD | BTW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Scherzer | Dodgers | 15 | 25.1 | +10.1 | 1.67 |
| 2 | Jacob deGrom | Mets | 7 | 16.7 | +9.7 | 2.39 |
| 3 | Brandon Woodruff | Brewers | 9 | 17.1 | +8.1 | 1.90 |
| 4 | Tyler Glasnow | Rays | 5 | 12.7 | +7.7 | 2.54 |
| 5 | Zack Wheeler | Phillies | 14 | 21.1 | +7.1 | 1.51 |
| 6 | Corbin Burnes | Brewers | 11 | 18.1 | +7.1 | 1.65 |
| 7 | Shohei Ohtani | Angels | 9 | 16.1 | +7.1 | 1.79 |
| 8 | Gerrit Cole | Yankees | 16 | 22.4 | +6.4 | 1.40 |
| 9 | Ian Kennedy | Phillies | 3 | 8.7 | +5.7 | 2.90 |
| 10 | German Marquez | Rockies | 12 | 17.4 | +5.4 | 1.45 |
| 11 | Triston McKenzie | Indians | 5 | 10.4 | +5.4 | 2.08 |
| 12 | Joe Musgrove | Padres | 11 | 16.1 | +5.1 | 1.46 |
| 13 | Yu Darvish | Padres | 8 | 13.1 | +5.1 | 1.64 |
| 14 | Tanner Houck | Red Sox | 1 | 6.0 | +5.0 | 6.00 |
| 15 | Robbie Ray | Blue Jays | 13 | 17.7 | +4.7 | 1.36 |
| 16 | Sean Manaea | Athletics | 11 | 15.7 | +4.7 | 1.43 |
| 17 | Logan Webb | Giants | 11 | 15.5 | +4.5 | 1.41 |
| 18 | Blake Snell | Padres | 7 | 11.4 | +4.4 | 1.63 |
| 19 | Pablo Lopez | Marlins | 5 | 9.4 | +4.4 | 1.88 |
| 20 | Michael Wacha | Rays | 3 | 7.1 | +4.1 | 2.37 |
| 21 | Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | 6 | 9.7 | +3.7 | 1.62 |
| 22 | Bailey Ober | Twins | 3 | 6.7 | +3.7 | 2.23 |
| 23 | Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 10 | 13.4 | +3.4 | 1.34 |
| 24 | Erick Fedde | Nationals | 7 | 10.4 | +3.4 | 1.49 |
| 25 | Nathan Eovaldi | Red Sox | 11 | 14.1 | +3.1 | 1.28 |
| 26 | Alex Wood | Giants | 10 | 13.0 | +3.0 | 1.30 |
| 27 | Madison Bumgarner | Diamondbacks | 7 | 10.0 | +3.0 | 1.43 |
| 28 | John Means | Orioles | 6 | 9.0 | +3.0 | 1.50 |
| 29 | Will Smith | Braves | 3 | 6.0 | +3.0 | 2.00 |
| 30 | Nestor Cortes Jr. | Yankees | 2 | 5.0 | +3.0 | 2.50 |
| 31 | Freddy Peralta | Brewers | 10 | 12.7 | +2.7 | 1.27 |
| 32 | Huascar Ynoa | Braves | 4 | 6.7 | +2.7 | 1.68 |
| 32 | Craig Kimbrel | White Sox | 4 | 6.7 | +2.7 | 1.68 |
| 34 | Vince Velasquez | Padres | 3 | 5.7 | +2.7 | 1.90 |
| 35 | Taijuan Walker | Mets | 7 | 9.4 | +2.4 | 1.34 |
| 36 | Trevor Rogers | Marlins | 7 | 9.0 | +2.0 | 1.29 |
| 37 | Joe Ross | Nationals | 5 | 7.0 | +2.0 | 1.40 |
| 38 | Cristian Javier | Astros | 4 | 6.0 | +2.0 | 1.50 |
| 38 | Kenley Jansen | Dodgers | 4 | 6.0 | +2.0 | 1.50 |
| 38 | Tylor Megill | Mets | 4 | 6.0 | +2.0 | 1.50 |
| 41 | Jake Woodford | Cardinals | 3 | 5.0 | +2.0 | 1.67 |
| 41 | Luke Weaver | Diamondbacks | 3 | 5.0 | +2.0 | 1.67 |
| 43 | Chris Bassitt | Athletics | 12 | 13.7 | +1.7 | 1.14 |
| 44 | Alek Manoah | Blue Jays | 9 | 10.7 | +1.7 | 1.19 |
| 44 | Aaron Nola | Phillies | 9 | 10.7 | +1.7 | 1.19 |
| 46 | Ross Stripling | Blue Jays | 5 | 6.7 | +1.7 | 1.34 |
| 47 | Spencer Turnbull | Tigers | 4 | 5.7 | +1.7 | 1.43 |
| 47 | Trevor Williams | Mets | 4 | 5.7 | +1.7 | 1.43 |
| 47 | Michael Kopech | White Sox | 4 | 5.7 | +1.7 | 1.43 |
| 50 | Dylan Cease | White Sox | 13 | 14.4 | +1.4 | 1.11 |
| 51 | Lance Lynn | White Sox | 11 | 12.4 | +1.4 | 1.13 |
| 52 | Trevor Bauer | Dodgers | 8 | 9.4 | +1.4 | 1.18 |
| 53 | Jesus Luzardo | Marlins | 6 | 7.4 | +1.4 | 1.23 |
| 54 | Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 4 | 5.4 | +1.4 | 1.35 |
| 55 | Luis Castillo | Reds | 8 | 9.0 | +1.0 | 1.13 |
| 55 | Jameson Taillon | Yankees | 8 | 9.0 | +1.0 | 1.13 |
| 55 | Ranger Suarez | Phillies | 8 | 9.0 | +1.0 | 1.13 |
| 58 | Logan Gilbert | Mariners | 6 | 7.0 | +1.0 | 1.17 |
| 59 | Wily Peralta | Tigers | 4 | 5.0 | +1.0 | 1.25 |
| 59 | Wil Crowe | Pirates | 4 | 5.0 | +1.0 | 1.25 |
| 61 | Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 16 | 16.7 | +0.7 | 1.04 |
| 62 | Ryan Yarbrough | Rays | 9 | 9.7 | +0.7 | 1.08 |
| 62 | Sandy Alcantara | Marlins | 9 | 9.7 | +0.7 | 1.08 |
| 64 | Tarik Skubal | Tigers | 8 | 8.7 | +0.7 | 1.09 |
| 65 | Casey Mize | Tigers | 7 | 7.7 | +0.7 | 1.10 |
| 66 | Edwin Diaz | Mets | 5 | 5.7 | +0.7 | 1.14 |
| 67 | Lucas Giolito | White Sox | 11 | 11.4 | +0.4 | 1.04 |
| 68 | Jose Urquidy | Astros | 8 | 8.4 | +0.4 | 1.05 |
| 69 | Eli Morgan | Indians | 5 | 5.4 | +0.4 | 1.08 |
| 70 | Marcus Stroman | Mets | 10 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 1.00 |
| 71 | Austin Gomber | Rockies | 9 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 1.00 |
| 72 | Tyler Anderson | Mariners | 7 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.00 |
| 72 | Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 7 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.00 |
| 74 | Zach Davies | Cubs | 6 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 1.00 |
| 75 | Adbert Alzolay | Cubs | 5 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.00 |
| 75 | Scott Barlow | Royals | 5 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.00 |
| 75 | Corey Kluber | Yankees | 5 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.00 |
| 75 | Paolo Espino | Nationals | 5 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.00 |
| 79 | Kevin Gausman | Giants | 14 | 13.7 | -0.3 | 0.98 |
| 80 | Anthony DeSclafani | Giants | 13 | 12.7 | -0.3 | 0.98 |
| 81 | Aaron Civale | Indians | 12 | 11.7 | -0.3 | 0.98 |
| 82 | Shane Bieber | Indians | 7 | 6.7 | -0.3 | 0.96 |
| 83 | Kenta Maeda | Twins | 6 | 5.7 | -0.3 | 0.95 |
| 84 | Frankie Montas | Athletics | 13 | 12.4 | -0.6 | 0.95 |
| 85 | Alex Cobb | Angels | 8 | 7.4 | -0.6 | 0.93 |
| 85 | James Kaprielian | Athletics | 8 | 7.4 | -0.6 | 0.93 |
| 87 | Sonny Gray | Reds | 7 | 6.4 | -0.6 | 0.91 |
| 88 | Julio Urias | Dodgers | 20 | 19.1 | -0.9 | 0.96 |
| 89 | Luis Garcia | Astros | 11 | 10.0 | -1.0 | 0.91 |
| 90 | Liam Hendriks | White Sox | 8 | 7.0 | -1.0 | 0.88 |
| 91 | Rich Hill | Mets | 7 | 6.0 | -1.0 | 0.86 |
| 91 | Railes Iglesias | Angels | 7 | 6.0 | -1.0 | 0.86 |
| 91 | Eric Lauer | Brewers | 7 | 6.0 | -1.0 | 0.86 |
| 91 | Yusei Kikuchi | Mariners | 7 | 6.0 | -1.0 | 0.86 |
| 95 | Matt Barnes | Red Sox | 6 | 5.0 | -1.0 | 0.83 |
| 95 | Carlos Hernandez | Royals | 6 | 5.0 | -1.0 | 0.83 |
| 97 | Charlie Morton | Braves | 14 | 12.7 | -1.3 | 0.91 |
| 98 | Tyler Mahle | Reds | 13 | 11.7 | -1.3 | 0.90 |
| 98 | Carlos Rodon | White Sox | 13 | 11.7 | -1.3 | 0.90 |
| 100 | Wade Miley | Reds | 12 | 10.7 | -1.3 | 0.89 |
| 101 | Jose Suarez | Angels | 8 | 6.4 | -1.6 | 0.80 |
| 101 | Mike Minor | Royals | 8 | 6.4 | -1.6 | 0.80 |
| 103 | Adrian Houser | Brewers | 10 | 8.0 | -2.0 | 0.80 |
| 104 | Michael Pineda | Twins | 9 | 7.0 | -2.0 | 0.78 |
| 104 | Ian Anderson | Braves | 9 | 7.0 | -2.0 | 0.78 |
| 106 | James Karinchak | Indians | 7 | 5.0 | -2.0 | 0.71 |
| 106 | Kwang Hyun Kim | Cardinals | 7 | 5.0 | -2.0 | 0.71 |
| 106 | Chris Paddack | Padres | 7 | 5.0 | -2.0 | 0.71 |
| 106 | Johnny Cueto | Giants | 7 | 5.0 | -2.0 | 0.71 |
| 110 | Max Fried | Braves | 14 | 11.8 | -2.2 | 0.84 |
| 111 | Chris Flexen | Mariners | 14 | 11.7 | -2.3 | 0.84 |
| 112 | Zack Greinke | Astros | 11 | 8.7 | -2.3 | 0.79 |
| 113 | Kyle Gibson | Phillies | 10 | 7.7 | -2.3 | 0.77 |
| 114 | Patrick Corbin | Nationals | 9 | 6.7 | -2.3 | 0.74 |
| 115 | Cal Quantrill | Indians | 8 | 5.7 | -2.3 | 0.71 |
| 116 | Jose Berrios | Blue Jays | 12 | 9.4 | -2.6 | 0.78 |
| 117 | Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 13 | 10.0 | -3.0 | 0.77 |
| 118 | Drew Smyly | Braves | 11 | 8.0 | -3.0 | 0.73 |
| 119 | Jordan Lyles | Rangers | 10 | 7.0 | -3.0 | 0.70 |
| 120 | Andrew Kittredge | Rays | 9 | 6.0 | -3.0 | 0.67 |
| 120 | Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 9 | 6.0 | -3.0 | 0.67 |
| 122 | Andrew Heaney | Yankees | 8 | 5.0 | -3.0 | 0.63 |
| 123 | Chris Stratton | Pirates | 7 | 4.0 | -3.0 | 0.57 |
| 123 | Adam Ottavino | Red Sox | 7 | 4.0 | -3.0 | 0.57 |
| 123 | Caleb Thielbar | Twins | 7 | 4.0 | -3.0 | 0.57 |
| 126 | Alex Reyes | Cardinals | 10 | 6.7 | -3.3 | 0.67 |
| 126 | Josh Fleming | Rays | 10 | 6.7 | -3.3 | 0.67 |
| 128 | Nick Pivetta | Red Sox | 9 | 5.0 | -4.0 | 0.56 |
| 129 | Jon Gray | Rockies | 8 | 4.0 | -4.0 | 0.50 |
| 130 | Jon Lester | Cardinals | 7 | 3.0 | -4.0 | 0.43 |
| 130 | Codi Heuer | Cubs | 7 | 3.0 | -4.0 | 0.43 |
| 130 | Trevor Richards | Blue Jays | 7 | 3.0 | -4.0 | 0.43 |
| 130 | Merrill Kelly | Diamondbacks | 7 | 3.0 | -4.0 | 0.43 |
| 134 | Lance McCullers Jr. | Astros | 13 | 8.7 | -4.3 | 0.67 |
| 135 | J.A. Happ | Cardinals | 10 | 5.7 | -4.3 | 0.57 |
| 136 | Zach Plesac | Indians | 10 | 5.4 | -4.6 | 0.54 |
| 137 | Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | 17 | 12.0 | -5.0 | 0.71 |
| 138 | Hyun Jin Ryu | Blue Jays | 14 | 9.0 | -5.0 | 0.64 |
| 139 | Chad Green | Yankees | 10 | 5.0 | -5.0 | 0.50 |
| 140 | Brad Keller | Royals | 8 | 3.0 | -5.0 | 0.38 |
| 140 | Garrett Whitlock | Red Sox | 8 | 3.0 | -5.0 | 0.38 |
| 140 | Devin Williams | Brewers | 8 | 3.0 | -5.0 | 0.38 |
| 143 | Jordan Romano | Blue Jays | 7 | 2.0 | -5.0 | 0.29 |
| 143 | Trevor May | Mets | 7 | 2.0 | -5.0 | 0.29 |
| 143 | Justus Sheffield | Mariners | 7 | 2.0 | -5.0 | 0.29 |
| 143 | Kyle Funkhouser | Tigers | 7 | 2.0 | -5.0 | 0.29 |
| 143 | Tony Watson | Giants | 7 | 2.0 | -5.0 | 0.29 |
| 148 | Shane McClanahan | Rays | 10 | 4.7 | -5.3 | 0.47 |
| 148 | Cole Irvin | Athletics | 10 | 4.7 | -5.3 | 0.47 |
| 150 | Framber Valdez | Astros | 11 | 5.0 | -6.0 | 0.45 |
| 151 | Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 10 | 4.0 | -6.0 | 0.40 |
| 152 | Dallas Keuchel | White Sox | 9 | 3.0 | -6.0 | 0.33 |
| 153 | Yusmeiro Petit | Athletics | 8 | 2.0 | -6.0 | 0.25 |
| 154 | Martin Perez | Red Sox | 7 | 1.0 | -6.0 | 0.14 |
| 155 | Jose Alvarado | Phillies | 7 | 1.0 | -6.0 | 0.14 |
| 155 | Daniel Bard | Rockies | 7 | 1.0 | -6.0 | 0.14 |
| 155 | Garrett Richards | Red Sox | 7 | 1.0 | -6.0 | 0.14 |
| 155 | Tyler Rogers | Giants | 7 | 1.0 | -6.0 | 0.14 |
| 155 | Archie Bradley | Phillies | 7 | 1.0 | -6.0 | 0.14 |
| 155 | Lou Trivino | Athletics | 7 | 1.0 | -6.0 | 0.14 |
| 161 | Paul Sewald | Mariners | 10 | 3.0 | -7.0 | 0.30 |
| 162 | Jonathan Loaisiga | Yankees | 9 | 2.0 | -7.0 | 0.22 |
| 162 | Jeurys Familia | Mets | 9 | 2.0 | -7.0 | 0.22 |
| 164 | Clay Holmes | Yankees | 8 | 1.0 | -7.0 | 0.13 |
| 165 | John King | Rangers | 7 | 0.0 | -7.0 | 0.00 |
| 166 | Steven Matz | Blue Jays | 14 | 6.7 | -7.3 | 0.48 |
| 167 | Vladimir Gutierrez | Reds | 9 | 1.0 | -8.0 | 0.11 |
| 168 | Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 14 | 4.0 | -10.0 | 0.29 |
| 169 | Brent Suter | Brewers | 12 | 1.0 | -11.0 | 0.08 |
BTP: Box-Toppers points
SWD: Sincere win differential, figured by subtracting win total from Box-Toppers point total.
BTW: Box-Toppers-to-win ratio, figured by dividing total wins by Box-Toppers point total. A BTW of more than 1.00 indicates a pitcher had a higher Box-Toppers point total than win total.
This chart is sortable. Click a column header to resort the chart, for example, by wins, Box-Toppers points, etc. Refresh page to resort by default rankings.
Urias led in wins with 20 and ranked fourth in Box-Toppers points (19.1).
Gerrit Cole of the Yankees ranked tied for third in wins (16) and second in Box-Toppers points (22.4).
Walker Buehler of the Dodgers ranked tied for third in wins (16) and 10th in Box-Toppers points (16.7).
Scherzer ranked fifth in wins (15) and led in Box-Toppers points (25.1).
Zack Wheeler of the Phillies ranked tied for sixth in wins (14) and third in Box-Toppers points (21.1).
Eleven of the top 13 wins leaders ranked among Box-Toppers’ overall top 60 players and had at least 9.0 Box-Toppers points in 2021. Two exceptions:
Steven Matz of the Blue Jays ranked tied for sixth in wins (14) and 119th in Box-Toppers points (6.7), 42nd among American League pitchers.
Kyle Hendricks of the Cubs ranked tied for sixth in wins (14) and 228th in Box-Toppers points (4.0), 67th among National League pitchers.
Scherzer led in Box-Toppers’ Sincere Win Differential
Scherzer led in Sincere Win Differential (SWD) with +10.1 by winning Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors in 13 of the 15 games in which he also earned the win. He also won Player of the Game honors three times in games in which he picked up the no-decision. While Scherzer earned 1.0 Box-Toppers point each time he won Player of the Game honors, he also earned bonus Box-Toppers points for being top overall Player of the Day or top NL Player of the Day. He earned an extra 1.0 bonus point for the seven times he was overall Player of the Day and earned an extra 0.7 bonus points for the three times he was NL Player of the Day.
In other words, Scherzer won Player of the Game honors 16 times (13 in wins, three in no-decisions), for a total of 16.0 Box-Toppers points. He earned 9.1 total bonus points, giving him 25.1 for the season, to lead all players.
Scherzer began the season with the Nationals before being traded July 31 to the Dodgers. He earned 10.7 points with the Nationals during the first four months of the season and 14.4 with the Dodgers during the final two months.
Of the top 10 in Sincere Win Differential for 2021, seven were also among the overall top 10 in Box-Toppers points for the season. In addition to Scherzer, they are:
Jacob deGrom of the Mets, second in SWD with +9.7, who ranked ninth in Box-Toppers points with 16.7. deGrom won seven games, lowest among starting pitchers in the SWD top 10. His Box-Toppers point total for 2021 was more than double his win total because he earned Player of the Game honors 11 times, including in all seven wins and in four no-decisions, earning Player of the Day honors (worth 2.0 total points) five times and NL Player of the Day honors (worth 1.7 total points) once.
Brandon Woodruff of the Brewers, third in SWD with +8.1, who ranked eighth in Box-Toppers points with 17.1.
Zack Wheeler of the Phillies, fifth in SWD with +7.1, who ranked third in Box-Toppers points with 21.1.
Corbin Burnes of the Brewers, sixth in SWD with +7.1, who ranked fifth in Box-Toppers points with 18.1. (Burnes was voted NL Cy Young Award winner.)
Gerrit Cole of the Yankees, eighth in SWD with +6.4, who ranked second in Box-Toppers points with 22.4, first among AL pitchers.
German Marquez of the Rockies, 10th in SWD with +5.4, who ranked seventh in Box-Toppers points with 17.4.
Three of the top 10 SWD leaders were not among the top 10 in Box-Toppers points for 2021:
Tyler Glasnow of the Rays, fourth in SWD with +7.7, earned 12.7 Box-Toppers points, 23rd among all players and eighth among AL pitchers.
Shohei Ohtani of the Angels, seventh in SWD with +7.1, earned 16.1 Box-Toppers points, 12th overall and third among AL pitchers. (It should be noted that Ohtani earned Player of the Game honors 12 times in 2021, three as a batter and nine as a starting pitcher. Winning 4.0 total Box-Toppers points as a batter without the chance to earn the win as a pitcher inflated his SWD number. Without his 4.0 points as a batter, Ohtani would have had 12.1 Box-Toppers points as a pitcher and an SWD of +3.1.)
Ian Kennedy of the Phillies, ninth in SWD with +5.7, earned 8.7 Box-Toppers points, 70th overall and 35th among NL pitchers. Kennedy, however, served as a closing pitcher, so the fact he earned three wins was less important than the fact he picked up 26 saves. Kennedy led all closers in Box-Toppers points in 2021.
There are three pitchers among the top 10 in Box-Toppers points who are not among the top 10 in Sincere Win Differential for 2021:
Urias, who despite leading all players with 20 wins, actually had a negative SWD. Urias earned 19.1 Box-Toppers points, fourth overall and third among NL pitchers, but that translated into an SWD of -0.9, which ranked 88th. Urias earned Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors 15 times and did it in 13 of his 20 wins. He earned bonus Box-Toppers points six times (three times as Player of the Day and three times as NL Player of the Day), ending with a Box-Toppers point total that was just short of his win total.
Robbie Ray of the Blue Jays, who earned 17.7 Box-Toppers points, sixth overall and second among AL pitchers. Ray ranked tied for 14th with 13 wins. His SWD was +4.7, 15th overall. Ray was voted AL Cy Young Award winner.
Walker Buehler of the Dodgers, who earned 16.7 Box-Toppers points, 10th overall and eighth among NL pitchers. Buehler tied for third with 16 wins. His SWD was +0.7, 61st overall.
Wins leaders with negative Sincere Win Differentials
Among the 13 pitchers with 14 or more wins, only four have Sincere Win Differential numbers that are above zero—Cole (+6.4), Buehler (+0.7), Scherzer (+10.1) and Wheeler (+7.1). Here is how other wins leaders fared in SWD in 2021:
Julio Urias of the Dodgers, first in wins with 20, had 19.1 Box-Toppers points and a -0.9 SWD, ranked 88th.
Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals, second in wins with 17, had 12.0 Box-Toppers points and a -5.0 SWD, ranked 137th.
Kevin Gausman of the Giants, tied for sixth in wins with 14, had 13.7 Box-Toppers points and a -0.3 SWD, ranked 79th.
Charlie Morton of the Braves, tied for sixth in wins with 14, had 12.7 Box-Toppers points and a -1.3 SWD, ranked 97th.
Max Fried of the Braves, tied for sixth in wins with 14, had 11.8 Box-Toppers points and a -2.2 SWD, ranked 110th.
Chris Flexen of the Mariners, tied for sixth in wins with 14, had 11.7 Box-Toppers points and a -2.3 SWD, ranked 111th.
Hyun Jin Ryu of the Blue Jays, tied for sixth in wins with 14, had 9.0 Box-Toppers points and a -5.0 SWD, ranked 138th.
Steven Matz of the Blue Jays, tied for sixth in wins with 14, had 6.7 Box-Toppers points and a -7.3 SWD, ranked 166th.
Kyle Hendricks of the Cubs, tied for sixth in wins with 14, had 4.0 Box-Toppers points and a -10.0 SWD, ranked 168th.
Lowest Sincere Win Differential
Brent Suter of the Brewers had the lowest Sincere Win Differential of the 169 qualified pitchers who had either seven or more wins or 5.0 or more Box-Toppers points in 2021. Suter earned 12 wins in 2021 but just 1.0 Box-Toppers point, giving him an SWD of -11.0.
Suter, primarily a middle reliever, never pitched more than two innings while earning any of his 12 wins. As a consequence, he was rarely the primary player most responsible for the team win. He earned his single Box-Toppers point in 2021 on April 21, when he was Player of the Game in the 4-2 win over the Padres (1.1IP 0H 0R 0BB 4K W), picking up his first of 12 wins for the season.
Despite picking up wins that were less than sincere, Suter ranked tied for 22nd with his 12 wins. Suter ranks 625th among the 799 players who earned Box-Toppers points in 2021, 144th among NL pitchers and 44th among NL middle relief pitchers.
Kyle Hendricks of the Cubs had the lowest Sincere Win Differential (-10.0) among primary starting pitchers and ranking just ahead of Suter overall in 168th place. Hendricks earned 14 wins tied for sixth overall, but had just 4.0 Box-Toppers points, 228th overall and 59th among NL pitchers. Hendricks earned Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors in four of his 14 wins, winning 1.0 Box-Toppers point each time. Another Cubs player won Player of the Game honors in his other 10 wins.
Highest Box-Toppers-to-wins ratio
Tanner Houck of the Red Sox won just one game in 2021 but he earned 6.0 Box-Toppers points. That gave him a Sincere Win Differential of +5.0, 14th among all players. But if you take his Box-Toppers point total and divide that by his win total, that gives him a Box-Toppers-to-win (BTW) ratio of 6.00, highest among all players.
Houck earned Player of the Game honors six times in 2021, earning 1.0 point each time. He earned Player of the Game honors in his one win as a middle reliever on Sept. 18, but picked up his other five as a starter while earning a no-decision.
Here are the next five players with the highest Box-Toppers-to win (BTW) ratios:
Kennedy, 2.90, with 8.7 Box-Toppers points and three wins.
Glasnow, 2.54, with 12.7 Box-Toppers points and five wins.
Nestor Cortes Jr. of the Yankees, 2.50, with 5.0 Box-Toppers points and two wins.
deGrom, 2.39, with 16.7 Box-Toppers points and seven wins.
Michael Wacha of the Rays, 2.37, with 7.1 Box-Toppers points and three wins.
Players with a BTW of 1.00 or better had as many or more Box-Toppers points as wins. Players with a BTW under 1.00 had fewer Box-Toppers points than wins.
Here’s how other notable pitchers fared in Box-Toppers-to-win ratio (BTW) among the 169 pitchers with either seven or more wins or 5.0 or more Box-Toppers points in 2021:
Wins leader Julio Urias of the Dodgers ranked 82nd with a 0.96 BTW (19.1 Box-Toppers points and 20 wins).
Box-Toppers points leader Max Scherzer of the Dodgers ranked 16th with a 1.67 BTW (25.1 Box-Toppers points and 15 wins).
Marcus Stroman of the Mets ranked 70th with a 1.00 BTW (10.0 Box-Toppers points and 10 wins).
Brent Suter of the Brewers, who had the lowest SWD of -11.0, ranked next-to-last among the 169 players with a 0.08 BTW (1.0 Box-Toppers points and 12 wins).
John King of the Rangers ranked 169th and last with a 0.00 BTW (0.0 Box-Toppers points and seven wins). King is the only one of the 169 pitchers listed here who did not earn Box-Toppers points in 2021. King made his Major League debut Sept. 4, 2020, and pitched 46 innings in 27 games in 2021, but has yet to earn Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors in his two seasons and so has 0.0 career Box-Toppers points.
About Box-Toppers—Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. In regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day.
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