With Major League Baseball announcing finalists this week for major postseason awards, in preparation for next week’s award presentations, Box-Toppers is going to spend the next few days going over its selections for those awards.
Box-Toppers choices for Rookes of the Year: AL—Gunnar Henderson of the Orioles. NL—James Outman of the Dodgers.
Box-Toppers Rookie of the Year ballot
Here is a look at Box-Toppers’ 2023 Rookie of the Year ballot selections for the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America (IBWAA) awards. The ballot requires votes out to three places in each leagues' Rookie of the Year.Players are shown with their team and their Box-Toppers point (BTP) total for 2023.
| AL Rookie of the Year | |||
| Player | Team | BTP | |
| 1 | Gunnar Henderson | Orioles | 7.5 |
| 2 | Bryce Miller | Mariners | 13.1 |
| 3 | Ryan Noda | Athletics | 6.0 |
| NL Rookie of the Year | |||
| Player | Team | BTP | |
| 1 | James Outman | Dodgers | 8.7 |
| 2 | Ezequiel Tovar | Rockies | 6.5 |
| 3 | Kodai Senga | Mets | 12.7 |
While Rookie of the Year is traditionally a batter's award, pitchers are eligible to win and have won in recent seasons—Devin Williams of the Brewers in 2020 and Michael Fulmer of the Tigers in 2016.
Here’s the plan:
Thursday—Rookies of the Year
Friday—Cy Young Awards
Saturday—Most Valuable Players
Sunday—Wrap up of all Box-Toppers selections plus a look at all awards finalists. This will include the awards reviewed the three previous days, plus the awards for Managers of the Year and Relievers of the Year.
First, for Thursday, a look at Box-Toppers’ choices for Rookies of the Year:
American League—Gunnar Henderson of the Orioles.
National League—James Outman of the Dodgers.
While Henderson is a favorite for AL Rookie of the Year, Corbin Carroll of the Diamondbacks is the overwhelming favorite for NL Rookie of the Year, even though he is not among Box-Toppers’ top NL rookies.
Box-Toppers’ top AL rookie is Gunnar Henderson
Henderson earned 7.5 Box-Toppers points in 2023, most among AL rookie batters. While rookie Mariners pitcher Bryce Miller had more Box-Toppers points, 13.1, Henderson had more than half his total. Since this is an award in which batters and pitchers can be directly compared, we arbitrarily double the point total for batters, giving Henderson an adjusted total of 15.0, which edges out Miller’s 13.1.
Henderson earned Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors six times in 2023, including four times between Aug. 1 and Sept. 4.
Outman is Box-Toppers NL Rookie of the Year
Outman earned 8.7 Box-Toppers points to lead NL rookies. While rookie Mets pitcher Kodai Senga had more 2023 Box-Toppers points (12.7), Outman had more than half his total. Since this is an award in which batters and pitchers can be directly compared, we arbitrarily double the point total for batters, giving Outman an adjusted total of 17.4, which beats Senga’s 12.7.
Carroll, the likely NL Rookie of the Year winner, only had 3.0 Box-Toppers points in 2023, which does not even put him on the radar among Box-Toppers’ top NL rookies.
No doubt Carroll had an outstanding season and when comparing season statistics, he beats Outman in just about every conceivable category. (Check this comparison of their seasons in Baseball Reference’s Stathead player comparison).
2023 statistical comparison: Outman vs. Carroll
Corbin Carroll of the Diamondbacks beats James Outman of the Dodgers in just about every statistical comparison for 2023. Yet Outman earned nearly three times as many Box-Toppers points during the season, 8.7 vs. 3.0. That made Outman Box-Toppers' choice for top NL rookie.| Player | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | TB | OPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Outman | 151 | 567 | 483 | 86 | 120 | 16 | 3 | 23 | 70 | 16 | 68 | 181 | 0.248 | 0.353 | 0.437 | 0.790 | 211 | 112 |
| Corbin Carroll | 155 | 645 | 565 | 116 | 161 | 30 | 10 | 25 | 76 | 54 | 57 | 125 | 0.285 | 0.362 | 0.506 | 0.868 | 286 | 134 |
Despite superior stats, Carroll trailed in Box-Toppers points
But simply accumulating big statistics doesn’t necessarily produce results. It’s not necessarily the size that matters, as some claim in slightly unrelated matters, it’s what you’re able to do with it. To what end were these statistics accumulated? Did they help Carroll contribute to his team’s wins?
Only three times in 2023 did Carroll win Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors in a Diamondbacks win—May 21, June 9 and June 27—earning 1.0 Box-Toppers point each time, giving him 3.0 points for the season. (He also earned Player of the Game honors twice in postseason games—Oct. 3 and Oct. 24. But no Box-Toppers points are awarded in postseason games and awards are voted on prior to the start of the postseason, so those games are not taken into consideration.)
Outman, though trailing Carroll in overall statistics in 2023, did win Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors seven times—April 20, April 22, May 17, June 23, July 25, Aug. 7 and Sept. 24. In other words, he was the key player most helpful in earning Dodgers wins seven times, more than double Carroll’s total. Not only that, but Outman earned bonus Box-Toppers points three times, once as NL Player of the Day on April 22 and twice as NL Batter of the Day on April 20 and May 17.
How was Carroll so far behind Outman in Box-Toppers points?
How could it have happened that Carroll, who outdistanced Outman statistically, be so far behind in Box-Toppers points?
One reason: Carroll performed well in several Diamondbacks losses. He had a Box-Toppers game score of greater than 0.0 in eight losses. Though he might have scored well enough to earn Player of the Game in some of those, players on losing teams don’t earn Box-Toppers points. By contrast, Outman’s more limited overall statistics may have been better deployed in wins and less wasted in losses, as he had a Box-Toppers game score greater than 0.0 in only two Dodgers losses.
Achieving a Box-Toppers game score of 0.0 or better in games puts players in consideration to win Player of the Game honors. Carroll had a 0.0 or better game score in 39 Diamondbacks wins, while Outman did it in 33 Dodgers wins. That means there were many times in which Carroll was among those top Diamondbacks players vying for Player of the Game but simply lost to a teammate with a better game score.
And one reason Carroll was so often beaten for Player of the Game honors was the strength of the Diamondbacks pitching staff. In 24 of those 39 times Carroll had a 0.0 or better game score, a Diamondbacks pitcher won Player of the Game honors. By contrast, Outman was beaten by a Dodgers pitcher for Player of the Game honors 15 times when he had a 0.0 or better Box-Toppers game score.
Outman may have succeeded, in part, because of the relative weakness of the Dodgers pitching staff while Outman’s total may have been limited by the strength of his teammate pitchers. Dodgers pitchers earned only half the team’s Box-Toppers points in 2023 (61.9 of 123.8). Meanwhile, Diamondbacks pitchers earned 63.9 percent of the team’s points (65.2 of 102.1).
Also, simply looking at both players’ aggregated Box-Toppers game scores in 2023 (the sum total of a player’s game score in each game), Outman has a slight advantage:
Outman: -207.0 game score
Carroll: -212.0 game score
Carroll did have a slightly higher average Box-Toppers game score because he played in more games. Carroll played in 155 games, giving him an average -1.368 game score. Outman played in 151 games, giving him an average -1.371 game score.
Negative Box-Toppers game scores are common for batters who, due to the nature of baseball, fail more than they succeed. A player getting no hits in three at-bats, going 0-for-3, results in a single Box-Toppers game score of -3.0. As such, players with negative game scores are not contributors to a team win and can’t win Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors.
Outman had a -3.0 or worse game score in 49 games, including one game with a -5.0 game score. Carroll also had a -3.0 or worse game score in 49 games, including eight games with a -5.0 game score. One thing to note here: In those eight games in which Carroll had a -5.0 game score, the Diamondbacks won six of them, meaning that not only did his relatively poor performance have no impact on the team’s success, but that his team was capable of achieving a significant number of its wins without his input.
Outman had a +3.0 or better game score five times, including one game with a +5.0 game score, his season best, on April 22, when he earned Player of the Game and NL Player of the Day honors. Carroll had a +3.0 or better game score four times, including one game with a +5.0 game score, his season best, on June 9, when he earned Player of the Game honors.
Finalists
Both of Box-Toppers’ choices for the awards—Outman and Henderson—are among the finalists for the award announced Monday.
Rookie of the Year finalists
Here are finalists for the Rookie of the Year awards to be given next week, as named by the Baseball Writers Association of America. Players are listed alphabetically with their Box-Toppers point (BTP) total for 2023 and their Box-Toppers rank among their league’s rookies.| AL finalists | Team | BTP | Rank† |
| Tanner Bibee | Guardians | 8.7 | 3 |
| Triston Casas | Red Sox | 5.5 | 10 |
| Gunnar Henderson | Orioles | 7.5 | 7 |
| NL finalists | Team | BTP | Rank† |
| Corbin Carroll | Diamondbacks | 3.0 | 24 |
| James Outman | Dodgers | 8.7 | 3 |
| Kodai Senga | Mets | 12.7 | 1 |
† Rookie of the Year candidates are ranked among their league’s rookies in Box‑Toppers points. However, for awards in which batters and pitchers directly compete, we adjust the batters’ total (doubling it) to make them more competitive.
Here’s a look at the three finalists for the award in both leagues and how they fared in Box-Toppers points:
American League
Guardians pitcher Tanner Bibee, 8.7 Box-Toppers points in 2023, 69th among all players, 37th among AL pitchers and third among AL rookies. He was not among Box-Toppers’ top three finalists for the award. While he had more Box-Toppers points than our choice Henderson (7.5), we arbitrarily double the points of batters when they compete in an awards category with a pitcher. That gave Henderson the adjusted total of 15.0. Bibee was Box-Toppers’ seventh-ranked AL rookie.
Triston Casas of the Red Sox, 5.5 Box-Toppers points in 2023, 159th among all players, 28th among AL batters and 10th among AL rookies. He was not among Box-Toppers’ top three finalists for the award, but was Box-Toppers’ fourth-ranked AL rookie.
Henderson, 7.5 Box-Toppers points in 2023, 89th among all players and eighth among AL batters. While he had the seventh-highest Box-Toppers point total among AL rookies, he trailed six pitchers. When figuring postseason awards in which batters and pitchers are directly compared, we arbitrarily double the point totals for batters, which pushed Henderson to the lead, making him Box-Toppers’ choice for AL Rookie of the Year.
National League
Corbin Carroll of the Diamondbacks, 3.0 Box-Toppers points, 366th among all players, 89th among NL batters, 24th among NL rookies and 10th among NL rookie batters. While Carroll is odds-on favorite to win the award, he does not rank among Box-Toppers’ top NL rookies.
James Outman of the Dodgers, 8.7 Box-Toppers points, 67th among all players and seventh among NL batters. While he had the third-highest Box-Toppers point total among NL rookies, he trailed two pitchers. When figuring postseason awards in which batters and pitchers are directly compared, we arbitrarily double the point totals for batters, which pushed Outman to the lead, making him Box-Toppers’ choice for NL Rookie of the Year.
Mets pitcher Kodai Senga, 12.7 Box-Toppers points, 22nd among all players and 10th among NL pitchers. Senga led NL rookies in Box-Toppers points in 2023, but ranks third among Box-Toppers’ top NL rookies. For awards in which batters and pitchers directly compete, we arbitrarily double the points of batters. That puts Senga behind Outman (8.7, adjusted to 17.4) and Ezequiel Tovar of the Rockies (6.5, adjusted to 13.0).
Henderson, Carroll win IBWAA Rookie of the Year honors
IBWAA Rookie of the Year winners: AL—Gunnar Henderson of the Orioles. NL—Corbin Carroll of the Diamondbacks.
The finalists announced Monday are for awards voted on by the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA), which will be presented next week. The Rookie of the Year Award winners will be announced Monday.
Box-Toppers voted for major postseason awards separately as a member of the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America (IBWAA). That group also cast ballots for all the major awards and announced its Rookie of Year Award winners Monday:
American League
1st Place: Gunnar Henderson, Orioles—310 points
2nd Place: Josh Jung, Rangers—94 points (Jung’s 3.5 Box-Toppers points in 2023 was sixth among AL rookie batters).
3rd Place: Triston Casas, Red Sox—91 points
National League:
1st Place: Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks—309 points
2nd Place: Kodai Senga, Mets—127 points
3rd Place: James Outman, Dodgers—70 points
IBWAA members include more than 800 baseball writers and content creators. Voting for full-season awards takes place prior to the start of the postseason each year, with selections announced in November.
NL rookie batters ahead of Carroll in Box-Toppers points
There are 468 players who were classified as rookies in 2023, according to Baseball-Reference.com. Of those, 177 earned Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors in 2023. Of those, 87 finished the season on an American League team, 88 on a National League team and two finished the season not on a Major League roster.
Carroll, likely winner of the NL Rookie of the Year, ranked 10th among NL rookie batters with 3.0 Box-Toppers points. Here are the nine NL rookie batters who finished ahead of him:
James Outman, Dodgers, 8.7 Box-Toppers points
Ezequiel Tovar, Rockies, 6.5 points
Francisco Alvarez, Mets, 5.5
Elly De La Cruz, Reds, 5.5
Brenton Doyle, Rockies 4.0
Nolan James, Rockies, 3.5
Patrick Bailey, Giants, 3.5
Matt McLain, Reds, 3.5
Spencer Steer, Reds, 3.0
Steer finished ahead of Carroll because he earned 1.0 Box-Toppers point in 2022, while Carroll had 0.0. One other batter, Johan Rojas of the Phillies, also had 3.0 Box-Toppers points in 2023, tied with Carroll for 10th place among NL rookie batters.
About Box-Toppers
Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. In regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day.
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