An opening day introduction to Box-Toppers, starting 26th season tracking players
The essay opening this post also appears in The Des Moines Register as an op-ed on Thursday, July 23.
The players take the field, the batter steps toward the plate, the umpire secures his medical mask up over his nose and pulls his cage mask down over his face.
And then he shouts the words that finally begin the 2020 season: “Play ball!?”
There is a slight upward inflection, an uncertainty still whether this thing, this pandemic-shortened 60-game Major League Baseball season will happen, whether it should happen.
It’s been nearly four months since the season was supposed to start. But the global coronavirus pandemic cut short spring training and delayed the start of the regular season. And then it was delayed and delayed again.
The spread of COVID-19 is worse now than when the baseball season was suspended, when there were few or no cases. But just the thought of it caused society to shutter. The situation is also worse now than in June when baseball owners and players finally finalized plans to try to begin the season in late July. Now, either because we think we understand this thing better or, more likely, because we are bored, impatient or feel we deserve some sense of normalcy, dammit, we stubbornly press on and have baseball because … well, because we’ve always had baseball.
And so it would be appropriate if tonight’s season opening umpire would make the traditional game-commencing barking announcement in the form of a question: “Play ball?”
Sure, for now, but for how long? Considering where we stand with the barest mitigation efforts against this disease as it rises to new heights in many parts of the country, including Major League cities, is it even possible to finish a meager 60-game schedule?
I don’t mean to be pessimistic. I miss baseball, too. But right now, I don’t think we deserve baseball. To get a reward, you need to complete a task—finish your vegetables for dessert, earn enough college credits to get a diploma, make your sales goal to get your bonus.
We admire The Greatest Generation who got America through World War II, in part, through their everyday sacrifice. They rationed gas and meat, they recycled rubber and metal, they lived a life in a “new normal” to help the nation overcome an enemy. Many made the ultimate sacrifice in that effort.
In 2020, Americans were asked to make much easier sacrifices by comparison. And by making them, we had a chance to reduce cases in May and June and July by limiting contact with others, wearing masks, washing hands—a few simple rules. While many put in a valiant effort, we didn’t faithfully follow the rules, we didn’t succeed in our goal to reduce cases—they increased. Other nations in our situation succeeded in bringing cases down. Maybe they should get our baseball.
Our inaction makes restarting baseball today riskier. It seems crazy to reward ourselves now with baseball. Not only don’t we deserve it, but it increases the chances of cases further rising, further delaying a time when playing again would be worth the risk, further delaying a time when our actions would truly merit the reward of once again witnessing our national pastime, whether it be at the ballpark or safe at home.
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Yet, here we are. It’s the opening day of the 2020 Major League Baseball season. This begins Box-Toppers’ 26th season tracking who most helps their teams win the most games, based on box score statistics. Here is an introduction to Box-Toppers:
Box-Toppers highlights
Here are recent post highlights:
Picks 2020
Box-Toppers projects the standings and win totals of all 30 teams based on the pandemic-shortened 60-game schedule.
Team rankings 2020
A look at how the 30 teams rank and compare going into 2020.
Top 100 players since 1995
A look at the 100 top players in Box-Toppers points since 1995, when Box-Toppers tracking began.
Top 100 players 2019
A look at the 100 top players in Box-Toppers points last season.
Top player rankings 2019
The top 10 overall players, plus the top 10 NL and AL pitchers and batters.
What will a 60-game schedule look like?
The coronavirus pandemic is limiting this season to 60 games, at most. Here’s a Box-Toppers look at the 2019 season after the first 60 games: Which players and teams led in Box-Toppers rankings and how many Box-Toppers points did they earn?
A look at Box-Toppers season-by-season AL & NL pitching & batting leaders, 1995-2019
Who led their league’s pitchers and batters in Box-Toppers points each season? Plus, further analysis of Box-Toppers points leaders.
Box-Toppers detail leaders, season-by-season, 1995-2019
In a sprawling, scrolling chart, see the top 10 overall players for each of Box-Toppers’ 25 seasons, plus the top five or 10 players each season based on league, position and other factors.
What’s the most important thing in baseball?
Winning the game, right?
But what baseball statistic provides the fan an indication of the player who most contributed to the win? Logically, you might answer “the win” statistic, but it only applies to pitchers. Plus, in some circumstances, the win is not awarded to the pitcher most responsible for earning the win, but simply the pitcher who was in the game when the team took the lead.
What is needed is a metric that will select the player—from among pitchers and batters—who most contributed to his team’s win. And that’s where Box-Toppers comes in.
Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win.
Further, in regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day. So, Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. As the season progresses, a player’s Box-Toppers point total can be compared with other players to determine the best player on a given team, at a given position—or even the best overall player in the game.
For example, in 2019, Astros pitcher Gerrit Cole led all players with 32.2 Box-Toppers points, the fourth-highest single-season total since 1995, when Box-Toppers tracking began. Here’s how he earned his points.
Click on the graphic to see the step-by-step method of how Box-Toppers Player of the Game and Player of the Day honorees are determined.
He earned Player of the Game honors 21 times, giving him 21.0 Box-Toppers points.
Six of those times, in addition to earning Player of the Game honors, he also won American League Player of the Day honors, worth 0.7 bonus points each, giving him 4.2 additional total points.
Seven of those times, he earned overall Player of the Day honors in addition to earning Player of the Game honors. He earned an extra 1.0 bonus Box-Toppers point for each Player of the Day honor, giving him 7.0 more Box-Toppers points.
So Cole received 21.0 Box-Toppers points for the times he earned Player of the Day, 4.2 points for the times he earned AL Player of the Day and 7.0 more for the times he earned overall Player of the Day, for a total of 32.2 Box-Toppers points. (Cole is with the Yankees for 2020.)
Only two players earned more Box-Toppers points in a single season—pitchers Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez. Johnson did it twice with the Diamondbacks, earning 33.7 in both 2000 and 2002. Martinez did it with the Red Sox in 2000 with 33.5.
Cole did not win the American League Cy Young Award in 2019. That went to teammate Justin Verlander, who earned 27.5 Box-Toppers points, second among all players and second among AL pitchers. Verlander’s 27.5 is the 12th-highest single-season point total by a player since 1995.
Nationals pitcher Stephen Strasburg led National League players with 20.7 Box-Toppers points, third among all players. NL Cy Young Award-winner, Jacob deGrom of the Mets, finished just behind Strasburg with 19.1 Box-Toppers points, fourth overall and second among NL pitchers.
Nelson Cruz of the Twins led AL batters with 12.5 Box-Toppers points. AL Most Valuable Player Mike Trout of the Angels earned 8.7 Box-Toppers points, ninth among AL batters.
Marcell Ozuna of the Cardinals led NL batters with 12.0 Box-Toppers points. (Ozuna is with the Braves for 2020.) NL MVP Cody Bellinger of the Dodgers earned 11.2 Box-Toppers points, third among NL batters.
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The Box-Toppers metric has been used since the start of the 1995 season to track players. In fact, earlier this year, we marked the 25th anniversary of the day Box-Toppers tracking began, April 25, 1995.
This is the eighth season for the Box-Toppers.com website. Box-Toppers’ first blog post was on March 25, 2013.
On the website and the blog, Box-Toppers will track each day’s games, showing each game’s Player of the Game and the top overall Player of the Day.
The website will also have regular posts weekly of overall Box-Toppers points leaders and team standings. These are usually posted on Fridays and will likely start a few weeks into the season as enough data is available to begin showing meaningful trends and results.
Box-Toppers will also have posts at other times as interesting Box-Toppers-related statistical nuggets are uncovered.
On Twitter and Facebook, we’ll include shorter posts about newsworthy players, their standing in Box-Toppers points and often, how they compare in the stat to other players.
Stay up to date with Box-Toppers at the website, on Twitter, Facebook and through the RSS feed.
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