ALCS Preview: Royals may have edge not because their pitching is strong, but because Orioles' pitching is weak

The Kansas City Royals may have an edge over the Baltimore Orioles in the American League Championship Series not because their pitching is so strong but because the Orioles pitching staff is comparatively weaker.

However, the Orioles have the overall higher Box-Toppers team ranking and have two outfielders on Box-Toppers end-of-season 2014 All-Star team. The best-of-seven game ALCS begins Friday in Baltimore.

Below are position-by-position match-ups of each player likely in the starting line-up for both teams, along with the highest-rated starting pitchers in Box-Toppers points, the top closing pitcher and an extra pitcher. Also listed are each player’s Box-Toppers points earned in 2014, along with their overall rank among all players.

The top pitcher for both teams, James Shields of the Royals, had 13.7 Box-Toppers points during the regular season, ranking 22nd among all players. The Orioles top pitcher is Bud Norris, with 10.7, ranked 51st among all players. Only three other teams in baseball had their top pitcher earn fewer Box-Toppers points than Norris:

• Padres, Ross Tyson, 9.7.

• Red Sox, Koji Uehara, 9.0.

• Rockies, Tyler Matzek, 4.7.

In fact, the Orioles are one of only two teams in baseball whose leader in Box-Toppers points was a batter—Adam Jones, with 11.5 points, ranked 40th among all players. (The other team was the Rockies—Troy Tulowitzki had 11.6 points.)

Matching up the four top starting pitchers from highest to lowest Box-Toppers points from both teams, the Royals have the edge each time (see the chart below). The Royals also have the edge in closers (Greg Holland with 7.0 over Zachary Britton with 6.0). The Royals also have the edge when matching up the next-highest rated pitcher (Jeremy Guthrie, 7.0 over Ubaldo Jimenez, 3.7). And one more thing, not included in the chart below—the Royals also have the AL’s top middle relief pitcher, Wade Davis, who has 7.0 Box-Toppers points.

The Orioles have the edge in overall Box-Toppers team rankings from 2014. They rank sixth among all teams with 113.4 Box-Toppers points, while the Royals are ranked 10th with 101.1 points—the Royals were the lowest ranked team that qualified for any of the four league division series. However, the Orioles will play the ALCS without suspended first baseman, Chris Davis, who earned 6.2 Box-Toppers points during the regular season.

The Orioles also have two players who will be on Box-Toppers end-of-season AL All-Star team. Adam Jones had the most Box-Toppers points among AL outfielders with 11.5. Nelson Cruz was second with 8.5. The Orioles also have the most notable batter (not included in the prospective starting line-up below) coming off the bench—Delmon Young with 5.5 Box-Toppers points.

However, looking at the prospective starting line-ups below, Royals batters have higher Box-Toppers point totals at five positions, while the Orioles are better in four. Also, adding up Box-Toppers points for the nine batters and six pitchers listed below, the Royals have the point total advantage—83.1 Box-Toppers points vs. 81.5.

Both teams were able to get a lot of bang for their buck this season, spending comparatively little and making it all the way to the ALCS. The Orioles had an opening day payroll of $107 million, ranking 15th among all teams. The Royals’ payroll of $92 million, ranked 19th.

ALCS Game 1, Royals at Orioles

The pitching matchup Friday:

Royals: James Shields, 13.7 Box-Toppers points, ranked 22nd among all players, 11th among AL pitchers.

Orioles: Chris Tillman, 6.0 Box-Toppers points, ranked 152nd among all players, 53rd among AL pitchers.

Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. In regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day.

AL Championship Series player comparisons

Likely starting players for the Royals and Orioles listed by position with their Box-Toppers point total (BTP) for the 2014 regular season and their overall player rank among all players

Pos	Royals	BTP	Rank		Orioles	BTP	Rank
1B	Eric Hosmer	2.5	368		Steve Pearce	7.0	121
2B	Omar Infante	4.0	243		Jonathan Schoop	2.5	395
SS	Alicides Escboar	5.0	190		J.J. Hardy	4.2	236
3B	Mike Moustakas	4.0	251		Ryan Flaherty	0	761
CA	Salvador Perez	4.7	210		Caleb Joseph	2.0	470
CF	Lorenzo Cain	2.0	421		Adam Jones	11.5	40
LF	Alex Gordon	3.0	203		Alejandro De Aza	1.0	537
RF	Norichika Aoki	2.0	443		Nick Markakis	3.0	320
DH	Billy Butler	2.5	365		Nelson Cruz	8.5	77
SP	James Shields	13.7	22		Bud Norris	10.7	51
SP	Danny Duffy	10.0	58		Miguel Gonzalez	8.7	70
SP	Yordano Ventura	8.7	75		Wei-Yin Chen	6.7	131
SP	Jason Vargas	7.0	107		Chris Tillman	6.0	152
CP	Greg Holland	7.0	106		Zachary Britton	6.0	161
PI	Jeremy Guthrie	7.0	113		Ubaldo Jimenez	3.7	270

Box-Toppers pitching leaders Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer win Cy Young Awards

Box-Toppers highest-ranked pitchers in each league for the season were selected Wednesday as 2013‘s Cy Young Award winners.

Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw was chosen as National League Cy Young Award winner. He led all players in Box-Toppers points for the season with 21.7.

Tigers pitcher Max Scherzer was chosen as American League Cy Young Award winner. He led all AL pitchers in Box-Toppers points with 18.1. He ranked fifth among all players.

Voting by the Baseball Writers Association of America for the Cy Young Award for top pitcher coincided, generally, with Box-Toppers Player Rankings. There were some anomalies and snubs.

Five pitchers who ranked in the top 10 among pitchers in their league were completely left off all ballots. Among those who received no votes for Cy Young:

• Patrick Corbin of the Diamondbacks. He had 17.4 Box-Toppers points and ranked fifth among all NL pitchers. Corbin briefly led all players in Box-Toppers rankings in July.
• Justin Masterson of the Indians. He had 16.4 Box-Toppers points and ranked third among all AL pitchers and 10th among all players. Masterson led all players in Box-Toppers points at five different times in the season, including being the overall leader for nearly a month from July 21 to Aug. 17. He led all AL pitchers in Box-Toppers points until Sept. 15, when he was finally passed by Scherzer. True, Masterson did not pitch much or pitch well down the stretch. His last Box-Toppers Player of the Game honor came on July 27. Still he was the player who most helped his team win 11 games—more than many pitchers who received votes—and should have been given some consideration among voters.
• Lance Lynn of the Cardinals. He had 16.1 Box-Toppers points and ranked seventh among all NL pitchers.
• Shelby Miller of the Cardinals. He had 15.4 Box-Toppers points and ranked ninth among all NL pitchers.
• Ubaldo Jimenez of the Indians. He had 14.5 Box-Toppers points and ranked ninth among all AL pitchers.

Closing pitchers were another anomaly. In Box-Toppers scoring, closing pitchers often rank lower in player rankings, as they are less likely than starters to be the player who most helps his team win the game—and thus earn Player of the Game honors and Box-Toppers points. So in the American League, Red Sox closer Koji Uehara ranked seventh among AL pitchers in voting but ranked 52nd in Box-Toppers points (with 6.0).

In the NL, Braves closer Craig Kimbrel finished fourth in voting and 17th in Box-Toppers points among NL pitchers (with 12.7).

Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Top players from the winning team of each game are determined by a formula using standard box score statistics. The player on the winning team with the highest Box-Toppers game score is Player of the Game and receives 1.0 Box-Toppers point. The Player of the Game with the highest overall Box-Toppers game score for all the games played that day is Player of the Day and earns a total of 2.0 Box-Toppers points. The top player in the opposite league receives a total of 1.7 Box-Toppers points. If both the day’s top overall player and top player in the opposite league are pitchers, then the top American League and top National League batter of the day receive a total of 1.5 Box-Toppers points each.

Box-Toppers rankings of Cy Young Award candidates 

Here are the results of Cy Young Award voting in both leagues. Players are listed in order of their vote total. The far right columns show how many Box-Toppers points (BTP) they earned during the 2013 season and how each player ranked in Box-Toppers points among pitchers in their league.

Cy Young vote
AL
Player	Pos	Club	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	Points	BTP	Rank*
Max Scherzer	pi sp	Tigers	28	1	1			203	18.1	1
Yu Darvish	pi sp	Rangers		19	3	1	6	93	16.0	7
Hisashi Iwakuma	pi sp	Mariners		6	12	6	1	73	16.1	6
Anibal Sanchez	pi sp	Tigers	1	1	3	9	8	46	17.1	2
Chris Sale	pi sp	White Sox	1		5	8	6	44	16.1	4
Bartolo Colon	pi sp	Athletics		2	3	1	6	25	13.1	10
Koji Uehara	pi cp	Red Sox		1	2			10	6.0	52
Felix Hernandez	pi sp	Mariners			1	1	1	6	14.8	8
Matt Moore	pi sp	Rays				2		4	16.1	5
Greg Holland	pi cp	Royals				1	2	4	11.0	17
James Shields	pi sp	Royals				1		2	9.7	23
Notable AL snubs
Justin Masterson	pi sp	Indians						0	16.4	3
Ubaldo Jimenez	pi sp	Indians						0	14.5	9
NL
Player	Pos	Club	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	Points	BTP	Rank*
Clayton Kershaw	pi sp	Dodgers	29	1				207	21.7	1
Adam Wainwright	pi sp	Cardinals	1	15	4	1	5	86	20.2	2
Jose Fernandez	pi sp	Marlins		9	3	5	7	62	19.0	4
Craig Kimbrel	pi cp	Braves		4	1	8	4	39	12.7	17
Matt Harvey	pi sp	Mets		1	8	4	3	39	15.0	10
Cliff Lee	pi sp	Phillies			6	6	2	32	13.4	14
Jordan Zimmerman	pi sp	Nationals			6		3	21	14.7	11
Zack Greinke	pi sp	Dodgers			2	4	4	18	19.4	3
Madison Bumgarner	pi sp	Giants				1	1	3	15.7	8
Francisco Liriano	pi sp	Pirates				1	1	3	16.7	6
Notable NL snubs
Patrick Corbin	pi sp	Diamondbacks						0	17.4	5
Lance Lynn	pi sp	Cardinals						0	16.1	7
Shelby Miller	pi sp	Cardinals						0	15.4	9

* Rank among pitchers in the league (AL or NL) in Box-Toppers points for the 2013 season.

Source: Baseball Writers Association of America

Red Sox' closer Koji Uehara shuts down Tigers in ALCS Game 5, tops players for Thursday, Oct. 17

Red Sox closer Koji Uehara shut down the Tigers for 1 2/3 innings in Game 5 of the American League Championship Series and is Thursday's Box-Toppers Player of the Day.

Uehara struck out two and allowed no hits or runs, earning the save, as the Red Sox beat the Tigers 4-3 to take a three-games-to-two lead in the best-of-seven ALCS. Game 6 is in Boston Saturday. 

Uehara had 6.0 Box-Toppers points during the regular season, ranking 149th overall. 

 Coming Friday: The National League Championship Series resumes Friday in St. Louis. Here is the pitching match-up:

NLCS Game 6, Cardinals lead Dodgers 3-2

Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw, 21.7 Box-Toppers points, ranked first overall (see the Top 10 Player Ranking list on the home page)

Cardinals: Michael Wacha, 3.0 Box-Toppers points, ranked 361st overall

This is a rematch of Game 2 of the series, won by the Cardinals, 1-0. Wacha was Player of the Game. 

In regular season games, 2.0 Box-Toppers points are awarded for Player of the Day, 1.7 for top player in the opposite league, 1.5 for top batter in each league and 1.0 for the top player in each of the other games. However, no Box-Toppers points are awarded during the postseason. 

Top player from each game

Listed from highest to lowest Box-Toppers game score

1017	Score	Team	BATTERS	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	SO	-	-	PITCHERS	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO
MLB	3.2	Red Sox		0	0	0	0	0	0			Koji Uehara (S, 4)	1.2	0	0	0	0	2

ALCS Preview: Tigers, with 3 best AL players in Box-Toppers rankings, may have slight edge on Red Sox

The American League Championship Series beginning Saturday features Box-Toppers' top-ranked AL teams and Box-Toppers' three best AL players—who all happen to be Detroit Tigers.

The Tigers may have a slight edge over the Boston Red Sox as they prepare to face off in the best-of-seven series beginning in Boston.

The Tigers were No. 1 in Box-Toppers Team Rankings at the close of the season with 123.4 Box-Toppers points. The Red Sox ranked fourth overall (second in the AL) with 121.7 points. However, the Red Sox had the better actual winning percentage (.599 vs. .574), giving them home-field advantage for the series. The Red Sox were tied for the best win-loss record in baseball. The Tigers had the sixth-best record—third in the AL, behind the Red Sox and Athletics.

The Tigers beat the Athletics in the American League Division series, three games to two. The Athletics had 115.3 Box-Toppers points for the season, ranked eighth overall. The Red Sox beat the Rays in their ALDS, three games to one. The Rays had 119.1 Box-Toppers points, ranked fifth.

The Tigers have the top three AL players in Box-Toppers points for the season:

• Pitcher Max Scherzer has 18.1 Box-Toppers points and is ranked fifth among all Major League players (see the Player Rankings Top 10 list on the home page).
• Pitcher Anibal Sanchez has 17.1 Box-Toppers points and is ranked seventh among all players.
• Third baseman Miguel Cabrera has 16.9 Box-Toppers points, leads among all Major League batters and is the only batter in the Player Rankings Top 10, in eighth place overall.

The Red Sox top player in Box-Toppers rankings is pitcher Jon Lester with 12.7 Box-Toppers points, ranked 34th overall. Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz has 12.4 Box-Toppers points and is ranked 36th overall, fifth among all AL batters.

Below are position-by-position match-ups of each player likely in the starting line-up for both teams, along with the four most likely starting pitchers, the team's top closer and an extra pitcher. Also listed are each player's Box-Toppers points earned in 2013, along with their overall rank among players for the season.

If you simply add together the Box-Toppers points of these 15 key players from each team, the Tigers have 104 points and the Red Sox 97.2.

If you compare them position-by-position, the Tigers also have more players with higher Box-Toppers points totals. The Tigers have the edge in eight positions, the Red Sox in seven.

The Red Sox have more highly ranked batters than the Tigers. In a position-by-position match-up of the starting nine, the Red Sox have Box-Toppers-superior players in six positions, the Tigers in three (though one of the three is at third base, where Miguel Cabrera beats Will Middlebrooks 16.9 Box-Toppers points to 1.0).

The Tigers dominate pitching match-ups in each category except closer, where Red Sox pitcher Koji Uehara has 6.0 Box-Toppers point while Tigers pitcher Joaquin Benoit has 1.0.

Coming Saturday: Here is the pitching match-up for Game 1 of the AL Championship Series:

ALCS Game 1, Tigers at Red Sox

Tigers: Anibal Sanchez, 17.1 Box-Toppers points, ranked seventh overall (see the Top 10 Player ranking list on the home page)

Red Sox: Jon Lester, 12.7 Box-Toppers points, ranked 34th overall

In regular season games, 2.0 Box-Toppers points are awarded for Player of the Day, 1.7 for top player in the opposite league, 1.5 for top batter in each league and 1.0 for the top player in each of the other games. However, no Box-Toppers points are awarded during the postseason.

AL Championship Series player comparisons 

Likely starting players for the Red Sox and Tigers listed by position with their Box-Toppers point total (BTP) for the 2013 regular season and their overall player rank among all players

	Red Sox	BTP	Rank		Tigers	BTP	Rank
1B	Mike Napoli	5.0	170		Prince Fielder	8.5	78
2B	Dustin Pedroia	3.5	286		Omar Infante	4.5	221
SS	Stephen Drew	6.0	143		Jhonny Peralta	3.0	347
3B	Will Middlebrooks	1.0	573		Miguel Cabrera	16.9	8
CA	Jarod Saltalamacchia	4.5	228		Alex Avila	3.0	334
CF	Jacob Ellsbury	5.5	161		Austin Jackson	1.0	576
LF	Jonny Gomes	6.0	156		Don Kelly	0.0	885
RF	Shane Victorino	4.5	224		Torii Hunter	4.0	248
DH	David Ortiz	12.4	36		Victor Martinez	4.2	235
SP	Jon Lester	12.7	34		Max Scherzer	18.1	5
SP	Clay Buchholz	11.1	41		Anibal Sanchez	17.1	7
SP	Jake Peavy	8.0	84		Justin Verlander	10.0	53
SP	John Lackey	6.0	148		Doug Fister	6.7	113
CP	Koji Uehara	6.0	149		Joaquin Benoit	1.0	628
PI	Felix Doubront	5.0	179		Rick Porcello	6.0	139

Box-Toppers deems Freeman, Uehara most worthy candidates for All-Star Final Vote

Red Sox closer Koji Uehara and Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman are the players most deserving to be voted to the All-Star Game in the Final Vote, according to Box-Toppers statistics.

Major League Baseball's All-Star Final Vote process gives fans the chance to select the final player on each All-Star team. Fans choose from a list of five players from each league who were either not selected by fans in general voting (which ended July 4) or selected by All-Star team managers to fill out the rosters.

Box-Toppers deems Freeman most worthy of earning the Final Vote in the National League. Of the 10 players on the Final Vote ballot, Freeman has the most Box-Toppers points with 5.0. He has the second-most Box-Toppers points of any NL first baseman, behind only Paul Goldschmidt of the Diamondbacks (8.7). 

Uehara narrowly earns Box-Toppers' endorsement in the American League. He has 3.0 Box-Toppers points, tied with Rangers relief pitcher Tanner Scheppers. However, Uehara breaks the tie because he has more total Box-Toppers points over the past three seasons (5.0 to 3.0).

Though by Box-Toppers standards, Uehara is the top AL player on the Final Vote ballot, he does rank only 56th among AL pitchers in Box-Toppers points for the season. Scheppers ranks 61st. Even among AL closers, Uehara ranks 13th.

The American League choices are all relief pitchers and are all a little weak in terms of Box-Toppers points. In fact, one player, Tigers relief pitcher Joaquin Benoit has 0.0 Box-Toppers points this season and earned only 1.0 last season.

The National League choices, by contrast, are all batters, and seem a little more interesting, exciting and substantial choices. Rookie sensation Yasiel Puig of the Dodgers is on the list. While his stats for his brief time in the majors are impressive (batting over .400 with eight homers since his June 3 debut), he has earned only 1.5 Box-Toppers points, the fewest of any Final Vote candidate in the National League.

Box-Toppers is set up to determine the players who most help their team win the most games. Top players from the winning team of each game are determined by a formula using standard box score statistics. These top players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being Player of the Game. Among each day's top players, bonus points are awarded for the top players and batters of the day in each league. Players accumulate points through the season to provide a data point for comparison, such as determining which players are most worthy as All-Stars.

Voting on the final candidates ends on Thursday. Fans can vote online.

	FINAL VOTE CANDIDATES
	AL PLAYERS	POS	TEAM	BTP
1	Koji Uehara	pi cp	bos al	3.0
2	Tanner Scheppers	pi mr	tex al	3.0
3	Steve Delabar	pi mr	tor al	1.0
4	David Robertson	pi mr	nyy al	1.0
5	Joaquin Benoit	pi mr	det al	0.0
	NL PLAYERS	POS	TEAM	BTP
1	Freddie Freeman	1b	atl nl	5.0
2	Ian Desmond	ss	dc nl	4.5
3	Adrian Gonzalez	1b	lad nl	3.0
4	Hunter Pence	rf	sf nl	2.0
5	Yasiel Puig	rf	lad nl	1.5

BTP: Box-Toppers points