Do the New York Yankees even stand a chance facing the rocketing Houston Astros in the American League Championship Series?
Astros players accumulated by far the most Box-Toppers points of any team (158.1). The Yankees had 123.4 points, ranked fifth overall. The Astros top three pitchers are among Box-Toppers’ top-10 ranked players in 2019. Meanwhile, the Yankees top player, James Paxton (14.1 Box-Toppers points), ranks 19th overall.
The Astros have more wins (107 vs. 103) and hold home-field advantage.
But the Yankees have proven resilient in 2019, winning more than 100 games despite having key players down with injury. And as the ALCS rolls around, key players have been returning to the field and/or showing signs of returning to past form, bolstering an already dominant team.
Probable players—Astros’ key probable players have more Box-Toppers points than Astros likely players. Among a group of 17 players on each team (shown in the chart below), Astros players have a combined 130.0 Box-Toppers points, while the comparable group of Yankees players have 90.2.
Starting pitchers—The Astros hold a decided lead over the Yankees. The Yankees top four probable starters have a combined Box-Toppers point total of 34.5. The Astros top pitcher Gerrit Cole ranked first in Box-Toppers points in 2019 with nearly that many points on his own (32.2, which is the fourth-highest single-season total since Box-Toppers tracking began in 1995). The Astros probable starting four have 84.3 combined Box-Toppers points, nearly 2.5 times more than the Yankees.
However, the Astros may try to use just their three top starting pitchers as starters in the series with some pitching on unaccustomed short rest and really screw things up for themselves (see Justin Verlander in ALDS Game 4 loss to the Rays). Also and however, while the Yankees do have a low Box-Toppers point total for their starting pitchers, one of their starters, Luis Severino was out nearly the entire season before returning at the end of the season and has appeared effective, earning 2.0 Box-Toppers points as Player of the Day honors on Sept. 22, his only Box-Toppers points of the season.
In addition to Cole and his 32.2 Box-Toppers points, the Astros also boast the second- and seventh-ranked overall players among their starting pitchers:
Justin Verlander has 27.5 Box-Toppers points, ranked second overall, among AL pitchers and among all Astros
Zack Greinke has 17.9 Box-Toppers points, ranked seventh overall and fifth among AL pitchers. Greinke was acquired from the Diamondbacks at the July 31 trade deadline and has earned 4.7 of his points since then.
James Paxton is the Yankees highest-ranking starting pitcher (and highest-ranked player) with 14.1 Box-Toppers points, 19th among all players and eighth among AL pitchers.
Starting batting lineup—One area in which the Yankees have an advantage over the Astros is the likely starting batting lineup. The Yankees likely starting nine batters have 43.2 combined Box-Toppers points, compared to 34.2 for the starting nine Astros batters.
Bench—The top three likely reserve batters for the Yankees have 7.5 Box-Toppers points while the Astros’ top three have 4.5.
Relief pitching—Both teams have relatively big name closers, both of whom did not fare particularly well in Box-Toppers points in 2019. Astros closer Roberto Osuna earned 4.0 points in 2019, while Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman earned 3.0.
A look at each team’s regular season
Before the season started, Box-Toppers projected the New York Yankees would win the World Series and that the Astros would make the postseason but be eliminated in the AL Division Series.
The Astros rose to lead AL teams in Box-Toppers team rankings in mid-May and held that lead all but one week (on June 27 the Twins led) for the rest of the season. The Astros led all teams in Box-Toppers points from May 16 to June 13 and the again from July 25 through the end of the season.
The Yankees meanwhile raced with the Tampa Bay Rays much of the season for the Box-Toppers points lead among AL East teams, finishing just 0.2 points ahead—the Yankees’ 123.4 points ranked fifth overall and the Rays’ 123.2 points ranked sixth.
Shortly after the Astros took the overall team lead in Box-Toppers points on July 25, they made baseball’s biggest acquisition at the July 31 trade deadline, picking up starting pitcher Zack Greinke from the Diamondbacks. Their 2.4-point lead on July 25 ballooned to what proved to be an insurmountable 19.1-point lead the following week, Aug. 1 with the addition of Greinke, who had 13.2 points at the time.
Other notable players in the series:
Yankees second baseman Gleyber Torres has 12.0 Box-Toppers points, 30th among all players and second among AL batters, behind only Nelson Cruz of the Twins (12.5).
Yankees centerfielder Brett Gardner has 8.5 Box-Toppers points, 77th among all players and 12th among AL batters.
Yankees starting pitcher Masahiro Tanaka has 9.7 Box-Toppers points, 52nd among all players and 20th among AL pitchers.
Yankees starting pitcher J.A. Happ has 8.7 Box-Toppers points, 65th among all players and 25th among AL pitchers.
Astros third baseman Alex Bregman has 10.0 Box-Toppers points, 48th among all players and fifth among AL batters.
American League Championship Series Game 1, Yankees at Astros
The pitching matchup Saturday:
Yankees—Masahiro Tanaka, 9.7 Box-Toppers points, 52nd among all players, 20th among AL pitchers.
This is Tanaka’s second 2019 postseason appearance. On Oct. 5, he was Player of the Game in the AL Division Series Game 2 win against the Twins.
Astros—Zack Greinke, 17.9 Box-Toppers points, seventh among all players, fifth among AL pitchers.
This is Greinke’s second 2019 postseason appearance. On Oct. 7, he appeared in the AL Division Series Game 3 loss to the Rays, in which Rays pitcher Charlie Morton earned Player of the Game honors.
About Box-Toppers—Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. In regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day.
Box-Toppers strives for accuracy. See a mistake in a post? A wrong name, wrong team, grammar error, spelling goof, etc.? Thanks for pointing it out! Contact Box-Toppers here. Let's fix it and make it right.
Related
AL Championship Series player comparisons
Likely starting players for the Yankees and Astros listed by position with their Box-Toppers point total (BTP) for the 2019 regular season and their overall rank among all players. Includes likely starting eight batters, three likely bench batters, four starting pitchers, top closing pitcher and one extra pitcher:| Pos | Yankees | BTP | Rank | Pos | Astros | BTP | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1B | DJ LeMahieu | 3.5 | 284 | 1B | Yuli Gurriel | 4.5 | 211 | |
| 2B | Gleyber Torres | 12.0 | 30 | 2B | Jose Altuve | 2.5 | 382 | |
| SS | Didi Gregorius | 4.2 | 222 | SS | Carlos Correa | 1.5 | 520 | |
| 3B | Gio Urshela | 7.5 | 101 | 3B | Alex Bregman | 10.0 | 48 | |
| CA | Gary Sanchez | 4.0 | 233 | CA | Robinson Chirinos | 3.0 | 319 | |
| CF | Brett Gardner | 8.5 | 77 | CF | George Springer | 5.7 | 152 | |
| LF | Giancarlo Stanton | 1.0 | 552 | LF | Michael Brantley | 1.5 | 527 | |
| RF | Aaron Judge | 1.0 | 558 | RF | Josh Reddick | 3.0 | 334 | |
| DH | Edwin Encarnacion | 1.5 | 514 | DH | Yordan Alvarez | 2.5 | 395 | |
| PH | Luke Voit | 5.5 | 160 | PH | Aledmys Diaz | 2.0 | 426 | |
| PH | Cameron Maybin | 1.0 | 649 | PH | Jake Marisnick | 1.5 | 524 | |
| PH | Austin Romine | 1.0 | 669 | PH | Martin Maldonado | 1.0 | 554 | |
| SP | James Paxton | 14.1 | 19 | SP | Gerrit Cole | 32.2 | 1 | |
| SP | Masahiro Tanaka | 9.7 | 52 | SP | Justin Verlander | 27.5 | 2 | |
| SP | J.A. Happ | 8.7 | 65 | SP | Zack Greinke | 17.9 | 7 | |
| SP | Luis Severino | 2.0 | 401 | SP | Wade Miley | 6.7 | 122 | |
| CP | Aroldis Chapman | 3.0 | 324 | CP | Roberto Osuna | 4.0 | 246 | |
| PI | Adam Ottavino | 2.0 | 431 | PI | Josh James | 3.0 | 333 | |
| Totals | 90.2 | Totals | 130 |