Even though the Los Angeles Dodgers are Box-Toppers’ most dominant team in 2021, the Atlanta Braves should be a competitive match for them in the upcoming National League Championship Series.
The Dodgers are far and away Box-Toppers’ top-ranked team in 2021, with its players accumulating 146.7 Box-Toppers points during the regular season. The Braves ranked fifth overall with 122.4 points.
However, several players that helped build the Dodgers to such preeminence won’t be available in the NLCS. Pitcher Clayton Kershaw (13.4 Box-Toppers points, 19th among all players) is injured and is unlikely to play in the postseason. Pitcher Trevor Bauer earned 9.4 Box-Toppers points (currently 28th among NL pitchers) before being placed on leave in July by baseball for investigation into sexual assault allegations. His leave has been extended to last through the postseason. Dodgers’ top batter Max Muncy (6.0 Box-Toppers points, 23rd among NL batters) injured his elbow in the final regular season game Sunday, did not play in the Dodgers’ League Division Series against the Giants and seems unlikely to be available in the NLCS.
Those three players account for 28.8 total Box-Toppers points, 20 percent of the team’s total. Subtracting their point total would give the Dodgers 117.9 points, which would put them in sixth place in team rankings.
When considering the absence of those key Dodgers players, the Braves match up much more evenly than when looking simply at Box-Toppers team rankings. In fact, when looking at the core group of comparable postseason players, the Dodgers and Braves match up is just about even.
The Dodgers made the NLDS by beating the Cardinals in the Wild Card Game and the Giants in the NL Division Series. The Braves made the NLCS by winning the NL Division Series against the Brewers.
Though the Dodgers have a better record, the Braves will have home-field advantage for the NLCS, since the Braves were NL East division champions and the Dodgers were a Wild Card team, finishing second in the NL West, behind the Giants. The Braves host Games 1 and 2 and host up to four games in the best-of-seven game series, while the Dodgers will host up to three.
Probable players—The Dodgers hold a slight—very slight—advantage over the Braves when comparing each team’s core group of 17 players who have been appearing regularly in the postseason so far.
As shown in the chart below, the group of 17 Dodgers players have a combined 96.5 Box-Toppers points, compared to a comparable group of 17 Braves players with a combined 96.2 points.
Starting pitchers—The Dodgers hold a considerable advantage among starting pitchers.
Max Scherzer leads Dodgers pitchers with 25.1 Box-Toppers points, first among all players in 2021. Also likely starters for the Dodgers: Julio Urias (19.1 Box-Toppers points, fourth overall and third among NL pitchers) and Walker Buehler (16.7 points, 10th overall and eighth among NL pitchers).
Charlie Morton leads Braves pitchers with 12.7 Box-Toppers points, 25th overall and 16th among NL pitchers). Also likely starters for the Braves: Max Fried (11.8 Box-Toppers points, 30th overall and 19th among NL pitchers) and Ian Anderson (7.0 points, 99th overall, 40th among NL pitchers).
The Dodgers three likely starters have a combined 60.9 Box-Toppers points, nearly double the 31.5 points of the three Braves starters.
Starting batting lineup—But the Braves have a considerable advantage among the likely starting batting lineup. The Braves likely starting eight batters have 42.5 combined Box-Toppers points, nearly double the total of 21.6 for the starting eight Dodgers.
Braves’ top-ranked batter is third baseman Austin Riley, whose 8.5 Box-Toppers points is sixth among NL batters. Braves outfielder Adam Duvall earned 8.0 Box-Toppers points in 2021, seventh among NL batters.
Injured first baseman Max Muncy, likely out for the series, was the Dodgers’ top-ranked batter in 2021. His 6.0 Box-Toppers points was 23rd among NL batters. Chris Taylor, who played center field and left field in the NLDS, has the most points among Dodgers batters likely to play in the NLCS, 4.7, 34th among NL batters. Five of the eight Braves likely starting batters have more points in 2021 than Taylor.
Bench—The top three likely reserve batters for the Braves have 8.5 Box-Toppers points while the Dodgers’ top three have 3.0. Notable for the Braves is former Dodger Joc Pederson with 6.0 Box-Toppers points, 22nd among NL batters. Notable for the Dodgers is Albert Pujols with 2.0 Box-Toppers points, but whose 204.8 career Box-Toppers points leads all batters since 1995, when player tracking began.
Relief pitching—The Braves hold a slight advantage when measuring the top three likely relief pitchers. Both closers—Kenley Jansen for the Dodgers and Will Smith for the Braves—had 6.0 Box-Toppers points in 2021, with Jansen ranking slightly higher because he earned 1.0 point in 2020 and Smith earned 0.0. Jansen is third among NL closing pitchers and Smith is fourth.
Braves’ Huascar Ynoa has 6.7 Box-Toppers points and was used as a starter in the regular season but in relief in the NLDS. Braves’ reliever Luke Jackson had 1.0 Box-Toppers points.
Notable Dodgers relievers include Blake Treinen (3.0 points) and Joe Kelly (2.0 points).
Conclusion—The Dodgers dominance has seemed to deteriorate with the loss of key players so much so that the momentum of storytelling would suggest giving the Braves the edge in the series. But even with the Dodgers’ shortcomings, they have battled back and made it this far. They are still here. They have the dominant starting pitching that can win (and in Scherzer’s case, save) games. And though they are missing key players, their core starters still have more Box-Toppers points than the Braves’ core starters. Yes, the series is closer than expected, given the Dodgers’ dominant lead in Box-Toppers team rankings. But the edge should still go to the Dodgers.
National League Championship Series Game 1, Dodgers vs. Braves
The expected pitching matchup Saturday:
Dodgers—Corey Knebel, 0.0 Box-Toppers points, 1,204th among all players, 275th among NL pitchers. Knebel earned no points in 27 appearances in the 2021 regular season, including four starts, none longer than two innings. He’s expect to open the game and pitch one or two innings, as he did in the NLDS Game 5 Thursday.
Knebel last earned Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors Sept. 24, 2018, with the Brewers, a season in which he earned 5.0 Box-Toppers points as a closing pitcher.
Dodgers were widely expected to start Max Scherzer, who closed NLDS Game 5. He’s now slated to start Game 2.
Scherzer has 25.1 Box-Toppers points, first among all players, first among NL pitchers. He’s had three 2021 postseason appearance. He started the NL Wild Card Game Oct. 6 and NLDS Game 3 on Oct. 11. He also pitched an inning of relief and earned the save in NLDS Game 5 on Oct. 14. But he did not earn Player of the Game honors in any of those appearances.
Scherzer won Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors in eight of his first nine starts for the Dodgers from Aug. 4 to Sept. 18. But in five regular and postseason appearances since then, he has failed to win Player of the Game.
Braves—Max Fried, 11.8 Box-Toppers points, 30th among all players, 19th among NL pitchers.
This is Fried’s second 2021 postseason appearance. He was Player of the Game in the NLDS Game 2 win over the Brewers on Oct. 9.
About Box-Toppers—Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. In regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day.
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NL Championship Series player comparisons
Likely starting players for the Dodgers and Braves listed by position with their Box-Toppers point total (BTP) for the 2021 regular season and their overall rank among all players. Includes likely starting eight batters, three likely bench batters, three starting pitchers, top closing pitcher and two extra pitchers:| Pos | Dodgers | BTP | Rank | Pos | Braves | BTP | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1B | Cody Bellinger | 1.7 | 521 | 1B | Freddie Freeman | 4.5 | 210 | |
| 2B | Trea Turner | 2.5 | 365 | 2B | Ozzie Albies | 7.0 | 103 | |
| SS | Corey Seager | 2.0 | 398 | SS | Dansby Swanson | 7.0 | 100 | |
| 3B | Justin Turner | 2.7 | 353 | 3B | Austin Riley | 8.5 | 72 | |
| CA | Will Smith | 2.0 | 400 | CA | Travis d’Arnaud | 0.0 | 854 | |
| CF | Chris Taylor | 4.7 | 203 | CF | Adam Duvall | 8.0 | 76 | |
| LF | AJ Pollock | 3.0 | 300 | LF | Eddie Rosario | 1.5 | 534 | |
| RF | Mookie Betts | 3.0 | 303 | RF | Jorge Soler | 6.0 | 144 | |
| PH | Albert Pujols | 2.0 | 421 | PH | Joc Pederson | 6.0 | 137 | |
| PH | Gavin Lux | 1.0 | 606 | PH | Guillermo Heredia | 1.5 | 551 | |
| PH | Matt Beaty | 0.0 | 908 | PH | Ehire Adrianza | 1.0 | 662 | |
| SP | Max Scherzer | 25.1 | 1 | SP | Charlie Morton | 12.7 | 25 | |
| SP | Julio Urias | 19.1 | 4 | SP | Max Fried | 11.8 | 30 | |
| SP | Walker Buehler | 16.7 | 10 | SP | Ian Anderson | 7.0 | 99 | |
| CP | Kenley Jansen | 6.0 | 141 | CP | Will Smith | 6.0 | 147 | |
| PI | Blake Treinen | 3.0 | 323 | PI | Huascar Ynoa | 6.7 | 113 | |
| PI | Joe Kelly | 2.0 | 329 | PI | Luke Jackson | 1.0 | 645 | |
| Totals | 96.5 | Totals | 96.2 |