The Atlanta Braves hold the Box-Toppers points advantages over the Houston Astros in the 2021 World Series.
The Braves accumulated more total Box-Toppers points during the season than the Astros, their likely roster for the Fall Classic has more Box-Toppers points than the Astros and their starting batting lineup and probable top four starting pitchers also outdistance the Astros in points.
But the Astros narrowly have a stronger bullpen and they have already upset teams in two previous rounds of the playoffs.
The World Series this year does not feature the teams with the best overall records in each league—the San Francisco Giants and the Tampa Bay Rays. Nor does it feature Box-Toppers’ two top-ranked teams—the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago White Sox.
The Braves rank fifth in Box-Toppers team rankings with its players accumulating 122.4 Box-Toppers points during the regular season. That was fourth among the five NL teams that qualified for the postseason. Among NL playoff teams, only the St. Louis Cardinals ranked lower, in 13th place with 105.4 points.
The Astros rank 10th with 114.0 Box-Toppers points. They were the lowest ranked AL team that qualified for the postseason, finishing behind the eighth-ranked Toronto Blue Jays (116.0 points), who did not qualify for the playoffs.
Luis Garcia
The Astros top player, pitcher Luis Garcia, earned 10.0 Box-Toppers points in the regular season. The last time a World Series team had a leading player with fewer Box-Toppers points in a regular-length season was 1996, when starting pitcher Andy Pettitte led the New York Yankees with 9.4. It is the only time since Box-Toppers tracking began in 1995 that a player leading a World Series team had fewer Box-Toppers points in a regular-length season.
(This does not include the pandemic-shortened 2020 season’s World Series pitting the Tampa Bay Rays against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Top players on each team in that series, as expected, had fewer points, though not considerably fewer: Pitcher Tyler Glasnow led Rays players with 8.0 Box-Toppers points and pitcher Clayton Kershaw led Dodgers players with 7.7. However, Glasnow ranked eighth among all players and Kershaw ranked ninth for the season shortened to about one-third of normal length.)
Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. In regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day.
Box-Toppers team rankings
Eddie Rosario
Though the Braves rank higher than the Astros is team Box-Toppers points, the Astros actually won more games—95 vs. 88.
The Braves had a big boost in Box-Toppers points at the trade deadline at the end of July when they acquired four players, helping to give them a boost of 15.5 Box-Toppers points in the period from July 22 to July 30. It was the third-biggest point gain by a team at the trade deadline, behind the Dodgers (+20.1) and the Philadelphia Phillies (+16.7). The Braves acquired:
Outfielder Adam Duvall (7.0 points at the time) from the Marlins. (He finished with 8.0.)
Designated hitter Jorge Soler (2.5 points) from the Royals. (He finished with 6.0.)
Closer Richard Rodriguez (2.0 points) from the Pirates. (He finished with 2.0.)
Outfielder Eddie Rosario (1.5 points) from the Indians. (He finished with 1.5.)
Earlier in the season, the Braves acquired Joc Pederson (5.0 points) from the Cubs and Stephen Vogt (1.5) from the Diamondbacks. (Pederson finished with 6.0 points and Vogt finished with 3.2.)
Roster
While the Braves have more Box-Toppers points than the Astros, they also have more points among likely players on the roster. In the chart below are 24 players who have been most active recently and who are likely to be on the World Series rosters.
The roster list includes nine starting batters (including a designated hitter for both teams), four likely bench players or pinch hitters, four likely starting pitchers, a closing pitcher and six other relief, bullpen or opening pitchers.
The Braves’ likely 24 players have a combined Box-Toppers point total of 107.2, compared to 99.3 for the comparable set from the Astros.
A key player missing from the Astros is Lance McCullers Jr., who suffered a forearm strain in the AL Division Series against the White Sox. McCullers, who earned 8.7 Box-Toppers points in 2021, 25th among AL pitchers and second among Astros pitchers, has said he will not be on the World Series roster.
Starting batters
The starting nine batters for the Braves have more Box-Toppers points than the starting nine batters for the Astros, 48.5-43.7.
The nine players include placing a designated hitter on the NL Braves—Joc Pederson, who earned 6.0 Box-Toppers points in 2021. We placed Pederson there because he was the batter with the most Box-Toppers points who most frequently came off the bench during the postseason.
The Braves top batter is Austin Riley with 8.5 Box-Toppers points, 72nd among all players and sixth among NL batters. Astros top batter is Kyle Tucker with 7.2 Box-Toppers points, 93rd among all players and 12th among AL batters.
Starting pitchers
Neither team has particularly highly ranked pitchers. Astros pitcher Charlie Morton with 12.7 Box-Toppers points, 25th among all players and 16th among NL pitchers, is the highest-ranked player on either team.
The Astros starting four pitchers have 39.5 combined Box-Toppers points compared to 32.1 for the likely four starting Astros.
As previously mentioned, Luis Garcia of the Astros with 10.0 Box-Toppers points has the second-lowest Box-Toppers point total to lead a World Series team in a regular-length season since Box-Toppers tracking began in 1995. Garcia ranks 49th among all players and 18th among AL pitchers.
Will Smith
Relief pitchers
The Astros have a slight edge among relief pitchers with its group of seven relievers having 20.0 Box-Toppers points compared to the Braves with 16.7.
Will Smith, most often the Braves closer, has 6.0 Box-Toppers points. Ryan Pressly, most often the Astros closer, has 3.0 points.
Jose Altuve
Postseason performance
Jose Altuve of the Astros is one of three players who has earned Player of the Game honors twice this postseason. (The other two are on the now-eliminated Dodgers—pitchers Julio Urias and Kenley Jansen.)
Altuve was Player of the Game Oct. 12 in the AL Division Series Game 4 win over the White Sox and on Oct. 15 in the AL Championship Series Game 1 win over the Red Sox.
The best-of-seven game World Series begins Tuesday in Houston.
World Series Game 1, Braves vs. Astros
The pitching matchup:
Charlie Morton
Framber Valdez
Astros—Framber Valdez, 5.0 Box-Toppers points, 175th among all players, 58th among AL pitchers.
Valdez won Player of the Game honors in the ALCS Game 5 win over the Red Sox on Oct. 20. He also made two other appearances, but did not win Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors in either. He started Oct. 8 in the ALDS Game 2 win over the White Sox and Oct. 15 in the ALCS Game 1 win over the Red Sox.
About Box-Toppers—Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. In regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day.
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Related:
Box-Toppers NL Championship Series preview
Box-Toppers AL Championship Series preview
World Series player comparisons
Probable players for the Braves and Astros listed by position with their Box-Toppers point total (BTP) for the 2021 regular season and their overall rank among all players:| Pos | Braves | BTP | Rank | Pos | Astros | BTP | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1B | Freddie Freeman | 4.5 | 210 | 1B | Yuli Gurriel | 3.5 | 272 | |
| 2B | Ozzie Albies | 7.0 | 103 | 2B | Jose Altuve | 6.5 | 126 | |
| SS | Dansby Swanson | 7.0 | 100 | SS | Carlos Correa | 7.0 | 102 | |
| 3B | Austin Riley | 8.5 | 72 | 3B | Alex Bregman | 3.5 | 277 | |
| CA | Travis d’Arnaud | 0.0 | 854 | CA | Martin Maldonado | 4.0 | 250 | |
| CF | Adam Duvall | 8.0 | 76 | CF | Chas McCormick | 2.0 | 496 | |
| LF | Eddie Rosario | 1.5 | 534 | LF | Michael Brantley | 3.0 | 315 | |
| RF | Jorge Soler | 6.0 | 144 | RF | Kyle Tucker | 7.2 | 93 | |
| DH | Joc Pederson | 6.0 | 137 | DH | Yordan Alvarez | 7.0 | 104 | |
| PH | Guillermo Heredia | 1.5 | 551 | PH | Jose Siri | 1.5 | 568 | |
| PH | Ehire Adrianza | 1.0 | 662 | PH | Aledmys Diaz | 1.0 | 666 | |
| PH | Orlando Arcia | 0.0 | 816 | PH | Jake Meyers | 1.0 | 766 | |
| PH | Johan Camargo | 0.0 | 1037 | PH | Jason Castro | 0.0 | 1073 | |
| SP | Charlie Morton | 12.7 | 25 | SP | Luis Garcia | 10.0 | 49 | |
| SP | Max Fried | 11.8 | 30 | SP | Zack Greinke | 8.7 | 69 | |
| SP | Drew Smyly | 8.0 | 81 | SP | Jose Urquidy | 8.4 | 74 | |
| SP | Ian Anderson | 7.0 | 99 | SP | Framber Valdez | 5.0 | 175 | |
| CP | Will Smith | 6.0 | 147 | CP | Ryan Pressly | 3.0 | 301 | |
| PI | Huascar Ynoa | 6.7 | 113 | PI | Cristian Javier | 6.0 | 136 | |
| PI | Jacob Webb | 3.0 | 350 | PI | Jake Odorizzi | 4.0 | 245 | |
| PI | Luke Jackson | 1.0 | 645 | PI | Yimi Garcia | 3.0 | 335 | |
| PI | Tyler Matzek | 0.0 | 839 | PI | Brooks Raley | 2.0 | 436 | |
| PI | A.J. Minter | 0.0 | 875 | PI | Kendall Graveman | 2.0 | 475 | |
| PI | Jesse Chavez | 0.0 | 978 | PI | Phil Maton | 0.0 | 845 | |
| Totals | 107.2 | Totals | 99.3 | |||||
| Starting 9 (with DH) | 48.5 | Starting 9 (with DH) | 43.7 | |||||
| Bench | 2.5 | Bench | 3.5 | |||||
| Starters | 39.5 | Starters | 32.1 | |||||
| Bullpen | 16.7 | Bullpen | 20.0 |
• “Starting batters” shows each team’s Box-Toppers points among the most likely starting nine batters (including designated hitters). • “Bench” is the combined Box-Toppers point totals of top four bench players, listed here as PH (pinch hitters), though some may serve as starters in certain games.
• “Starters” is the combined Box-Toppers point totals of the four likely starting pitchers.
• “Bullpen” is the combined Box-Toppers point totals of pitchers not listed as starters (SP) or closers (CP).