The Houston Astros, Box-Toppers’ lowest-ranked team in the 2020 postseason, face the Tampa Bay Rays in the American League Championship Series.
The Astros ranked 17th among all teams in Box-Toppers regular season rankings with players accumulating a combined 34.4 Box-Toppers points. They ranked eighth among all AL teams and ranked behind the non-playoff qualifying Philadelphia Phillies (15th with 35.1 points). However, the Astros were the sixth-seeded AL team in the playoffs.
The Rays meanwhile ranked ninth among all teams with 43.4 Box-Toppers points, fifth among AL teams, though they had the best record in the AL and were the top-seeded AL team in the playoffs.
While the Rays seem to have the advantage on paper, the Astros, who seemed to underachieve in the regular season, have come to life in the postseason, defeating higher seeds and higher-ranked teams in Box-Toppers rankings in each round. In the Wild Card round, they beat the third-seeded Minnesota Twins (ranked seventh in Box-Toppers rankings with 43.8 points). In the AL Division Series, they beat the second-seeded Oakland Athletics (ranked fourth overall and first among AL teams in Box-Toppers rankings with 45.2).
The Rays beat the eighth-seeded Toronto Blue Jays in the Wild Card round (ranked 10th in Box-Toppers rankings with 41.7 points) and the fifth-seeded New York Yankees in the AL Division Series (ranked 12th in Box-Toppers rankings with 39.9 points).
While the Rays will serve as the home team in up to four games in the best-of-seven game series, the series is being played at a neutral site, Petco Park in San Diego, because of pandemic concerns. The series is scheduled for seven consecutive days with no usual off-days for travel.
Probable players—While the Rays have an overall team Box-Toppers point advantage over the Astros (43.4 vs. 34.4), that advantage is less pronounced when the rosters are narrowed to probable players. Among a group of 18 players on each team (shown in the chart below), Rays players have a combined 34.4 Box-Toppers points, while the comparable group of Astros players has 30.4.
Starting pitchers—The Rays hold the advantage among starting pitchers.
Tyler Glasnow is the only player on both rosters to rank among Box-Toppers overall top 10 in 2020 (8.0 Box-Toppers points, eighth overall, fourth among AL pitchers).
Framber Valdez is the Astros’ highest-ranked pitcher, 35th overall with 4.7 Box-Toppers points. And while he has served as a starter, he is also often used as a middle reliever.
The Rays starters also feature Blake Snell (3.7 points, 63rd overall) and Charlie Morton (2.0 points, 149th overall). Both Snell and Morton have been among Box-Toppers points leaders in the past two seasons—Morton ranked fifth among all players in 2019 (18.8 points) and Snell led all players in 2018 (27.2 points).
The Astros in recent seasons have dominated in starting pitching, including in 2019 when the top two overall players in Box-Toppers rankings were Astros starters—Gerrit Cole (32.2 points) and Justin Verlander (27.5). But in 2020, Cole went to the Yankees and Verlander earned 1.0 Box-Toppers point, was out injured for the rest of the season and has recently undergone Tommy John surgery and will miss 2021. This year’s Astros starters feature Lance McCullers Jr. (2.7 points, 124th overall), Zack Greinke (2.0 points, 150th overall) and Jose Urquidy (2.0 points, 191st overall). (Greinke ranked seventh among all players in 2019 with 17.9 points).
Starting batting lineup—One area in which the Astros have an advantage over the Rays is the likely starting batting lineup. The Astros likely starting nine batters have 12.5 combined Box-Toppers points, compared to 7.5 for the starting nine Rays batters.
The Astros overall top-ranked player in Box-Toppers rankings is left fielder Kyle Tucker with 5.0 Box-Toppers points, 32nd overall and fourth among AL batters.
The Rays top batter is third baseman Joey Wendle with 3.0 Box-Toppers points, 106th overall and 19th among AL batters.
Granted, the 60-game pandemic-shortened season provided a very small sample of statistics to work with—for example, the Rays starting nine batters have an average Box-Toppers point total of less than 1.0 (0.83).
Bench—The top three likely reserve batters for the Rays have 6.2 Box-Toppers points while the Astros’ top three have 1.5.
Relief pitching—Ryan Pressly is the closer for the Astros and had 3.0 Box-Toppers points in 2020, 101st among all players. Pete Fairbanks serves as closer for the Rays and had 2.0 points in 2020, 222nd among closers. But Valdez often pitched relief for the Astros and is the second-highest ranking Astros player with 4.7 points, 35th among all players. Ryan Yarbrough often serves as long relief for the Rays and had 3.0 Box-Toppers points in 2020, 83rd among all players. Astros reliever Cristian Javier had 2.0 points in 2020, 227th overall and Rays reliever Diego Castillo had 2.0 points in 2020, 198th overall.
American League Championship Series Game 1, Astros vs. Rays
The pitching matchup Sunday:
Astros—Framber Valdez, 4.7 Box-Toppers points, 35th among all players, 15th among AL pitchers.
This is Valdez’s third 2020 postseason appearance. On Sept. 29, he was Player of the Game in the AL Wild Card Game 1 win over the Twins, pitching five innings of relief. He also started Oct. 6 in the AL Division Series Game 2 win over the Athletics.
Rays—Blake Snell, 3.7 Box-Toppers points, 63rd among all players, 25th among AL pitchers.
This is Snell’s third 2020 postseason appearance. On Sept. 29, he was Player of the Game in the AL Wild Card Game 1 win over the Blue Jays. He also started Oct. 5 in the AL Division Series Game 1, a loss to the Yankees.
About Box-Toppers—Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. In regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day.
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AL Championship Series player comparisons
Likely starting players for the Astros and Rays listed by position with their Box-Toppers point total (BTP) for the 2020 regular season and their overall rank among all players. Includes likely starting nine batters, two likely bench batters, three starting pitchers, top closing pitcher and two extra pitchers:| Pos | Astros | BTP | Rank | Pos | Rays | BTP | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1B | Yuli Gurriel | 2.0 | 167 | 1B | Ji-Man Choi | 0.0 | 575 | |
| 2B | Jose Altuve | 0.0 | 651 | 2B | Brandon Lowe | 1.0 | 407 | |
| SS | Carlos Correa | 1.5 | 275 | SS | Willy Adames | 0.0 | 695 | |
| 3B | Alex Bregman | 1.0 | 294 | 3B | Joey Wendle | 3.0 | 106 | |
| CA | Martin Maldonado | 0.0 | 755 | CA | Mike Zunino | 0.0 | 698 | |
| CF | George Springer | 2.0 | 162 | CF | Kevin Kiermaier | 1.0 | 316 | |
| LF | Kyle Tucker | 5.0 | 32 | LF | Randy Arozarena | 1.5 | 285 | |
| RF | Josh Reddick | 0.0 | 627 | RF | Manuel Margot | 1.0 | 352 | |
| DH | Michael Brantley | 1.0 | 379 | DH | Yandy Diaz | 0.0 | 806 | |
| PH | Myles Straw | 1.5 | 283 | PH | Mike Brosseau | 2.5 | 145 | |
| PH | Aledmys Diaz | 0.0 | 676 | PH | Yoshi Tsutsugo | 2.0 | 234 | |
| PH | Dustin Garneau | 0.0 | 1491 | PH | Hunter Renfroe | 1.7 | 240 | |
| SP | Lance McCullers Jr. | 2.7 | 124 | SP | Tyler Glasnow | 8.0 | 8 | |
| SP | Zack Greinke | 2.0 | 150 | SP | Blake Snell | 3.7 | 63 | |
| SP | Jose Urquidy | 2.0 | 191 | SP | Charlie Morton | 2.0 | 149 | |
| CP | Ryan Pressly | 3.0 | 101 | CP | Pete Fairbanks | 2.0 | 222 | |
| PI | Framber Valdez | 4.7 | 35 | PI | Ryan Yarbrough | 3.0 | 83 | |
| PI | Cristian Javier | 2.0 | 227 | PI | Diego Castillo | 2.0 | 198 | |
| Totals | 30.4 | Totals | 34.4 |