The Los Angeles Dodgers, Box-Toppers’ dominant team during much of the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, hold the edge over the Atlanta Braves in the National League Championship Series.
The Dodgers have ranked first in six straight weekly Box-Toppers team rankings, from Aug. 20 on, leading all teams at season’s end with its players accumulating a combined 52.8 Box-Toppers points.
The Braves, meanwhile, ranked sixth with 44.0 Box-Toppers points, fourth among NL teams, behind the Dodgers, the San Diego Padres (48.0) and the Chicago Cubs (46.5). Yet, the Braves, who are actually the second-seeded NL team in the postseason behind the Dodgers, are the highest-ranking team other than the Dodgers remaining in the postseason. (Of the American League teams remaining, the Tampa Bay Rays rank ninth and the Houston Astros rank 17th.)
While the Dodgers will serve as the home team in up to four games in the best-of-seven game series, the series is being played at a neutral site, Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, because of pandemic concerns. The series is scheduled for seven consecutive days with no usual off-days for travel.
Probable players—Dodgers key starting players have more Box-Toppers points than key Braves starting players. Among a group of 18 players on each team (shown in the chart below), Dodgers players have a combined 47.8 Box-Toppers points, while the comparable group of Braves players have 34.9.
Starting pitching—The Dodgers hold the edge among starting pitchers, led by Clayton Kershaw (projected Game 2 starter) who had 7.7 Box-Toppers points in the 2020 regular season, ninth among all players and fifth among NL pitchers. Kershaw is the highest-ranking player in the series and only the second-highest ranking player still playing in the postseason (Rays pitcher Tyler Glasnow in the AL Championship Series, who has 8.0 Box-Toppers points, ranks higher—eighth among all players).
Also likely starters for the Dodgers are Walker Buehler (5.7 Box-Toppers points, 25th among all players and 12th among NL pitchers) and Dustin May (2.0 Box-Toppers points, 55th among NL pitchers).
Top Braves starter Max Fried has 5.7 Box-Toppers points, 26th among all players and 13th among NL pitchers. Also likely starters for the Braves are Ian Anderson (2.7 points) and Kyle Wright (1.0 point).
Anderson has earned Player of the Game honors twice already this postseason (Oct. 1 and Oct. 7). Dodgers pitcher Julio Urias, used as a reliever this postseason, has also earned Player of the Game honors twice this postseason (Sept. 30 and Oct. 8). Though he has contributed significantly to the Dodgers postseason run, Urias is not listed among Dodgers players in the chart below because he had so few regular season 2020 Box-Toppers points (1.0).
Other Braves and Dodgers starters have also earned Player of the Game honors this postseason, including the Braves’ Fried on Sept. 30 and Wright on Oct. 8 and the Dodgers’ Kershaw on Oct. 1 and May on Oct. 6.
Starting batting lineup—The Braves likely starting nine batters hold a slight edge over the Dodgers’ starting nine. The Braves’ nine have a combined Box-Toppers point total of 22.5 compared to 20.2 for the Dodgers’ starting nine. The Braves are led by Marcell Ozuna, who led all NL batters with 4.5 Box-Toppers points, 38th among all players. He is among three Braves who rank in Box-Toppers’ overall top 100 players. The others are left fielder Adam Duvall (4.0 points, 55th overall, fourth among NL batters) and Freddie Freeman (3.5 points, 70th overall, eighth among NL batters).
The Dodgers have four batters among Box-Toppers’ overall top 100 players, but all rank below the Braves’ top three batters—shortstop Corey Seager (3.5 points, 79th overall, 13th among NL batters), catcher Will Smith (3.0 points, 93rd overall, 17th among NL batters), second baseman Chris Taylor (3.0 points, 95th overall, 19th among NL batters) and left fielder A.J. Pollock (3.0 points, 99th overall, 20th among NL batters).
Bench—The Dodgers have an advantage in offensive depth with three players listed in the chart below as pinch hitters (PH), all of whom earned Box-Toppers points in 2020. None of the three Braves listed as pinch hitters in the chart below earned points in 2020, including Cristian Pache, who has yet to make his Box-Toppers debut by earning his first career Player of the Game honor. He has appeared in just two regular season games but has been on the Braves’ postseason rosters.
Relief pitching—The Dodgers hold the edge here, too, though there was not much difference in their likely closers in terms of 2020 Box-Toppers points. Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen had 1.0 Box-Toppers point in 2020, while Braves closer Mark Melancon had 0.0. The Dodgers big advantage is Tony Gonsolin, who had 4.7 Box-Toppers points in 2020, 36th among all players and 17th among NL pitchers. Gonsolin was used as a starter in the regular season and may be used in that role in this series, however, though he’s been available, the Dodgers have not used him in their first five playoff games.
National League Championship Series Game 1: Braves vs. Dodgers
The pitching matchup Monday:
Braves—Max Fried, 5.7 Box-Toppers points, 26th among all players, 13th among NL pitchers.
This is his third postseason appearance of 2020. He started in the NL Wild Card Game 1 win against the Reds on Sept. 30 (in which he earned Player of the Game honors) and in the NL Division Series Game 1 win against the Marlins on Oct. 6.
Dodgers—Walker Buehler, 5.7 Box-Toppers points, 25th among all players, 12th among NL pitchers.
This is his third postseason appearance of 2020. He started in the NL Wild Card Game 1 win against the Brewers on Sept. 30 and in the NL Division Series Game 1 win against the Padres on Oct. 6.
While both Fried and Buehler had the same 5.7 Box-Toppers point total in 2020, Buehler ranks higher (25th overall vs. 26th) because he had more 2019 Box-Toppers points—16.4 vs. 10.0).
About Box-Toppers—Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. In regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day.
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Related
American League Championship Series preview for 2020: Astros vs. Rays
NL Championship Series player comparisons
Likely starting players for the Braves and Dodgers listed by position with their Box-Toppers point total (BTP) for the 2020 regular season and their overall rank among all players. Includes likely starting nine batters, two likely bench batters, three starting pitchers, top closing pitcher and two extra pitchers:| Pos | Braves | BTP | Rank | Pos | Dodgers | BTP | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1B | Freddie Freeman | 3.5 | 70 | 1B | Max Muncy | 1.5 | 255 | |
| 2B | Ozzie Albies | 1.0 | 308 | 2B | Chris Taylor | 3.0 | 95 | |
| SS | Dansby Swanson | 2.0 | 180 | SS | Corey Seager | 3.5 | 79 | |
| 3B | Austin Riley | 2.0 | 163 | 3B | Justin Turner | 1.0 | 324 | |
| CA | Travis d’Arnaud | 1.5 | 253 | CA | Will Smith | 3.0 | 93 | |
| CF | Ronald Acuna Jr. | 1.5 | 264 | CF | Cody Bellinger | 1.0 | 291 | |
| LF | Adam Duvall | 4.0 | 55 | LF | A.J. Pollock | 3.0 | 99 | |
| RF | Nick Markakis | 2.5 | 148 | RF | Mookie Betts | 2.5 | 131 | |
| DH | Marcell Ozuna | 4.5 | 38 | DH | Joc Pederson | 1.7 | 239 | |
| PH | Charlie Culberson | 0.0 | 770 | PH | Enrique Hernandez | 2.0 | 182 | |
| PH | Tyler Flowers | 0.0 | 955 | PH | Gavin Lux | 1.5 | 282 | |
| PH | Cristian Pache | 0.0 | -* | PH | Matt Beaty | 1.0 | 446 | |
| SP | Max Fried | 5.7 | 26 | SP | Walker Buehler | 5.7 | 25 | |
| SP | Ian Anderson | 2.7 | 126 | SP | Clayton Kershaw | 7.7 | 9 | |
| SP | Kyle Wright | 1.0 | 496 | SP | Dustin May | 2.0 | 201 | |
| CP | Mark Melancon | 0.0 | 563 | CP | Kenley Jansen | 1.0 | 320 | |
| PI | Tyler Matzek | 2.0 | 218 | PI | Tony Gonsolin | 4.7 | 36 | |
| PI | A.J. Minter | 1.0 | 359 | PI | Jake McGee | 2.0 | 214 | |
| Totals | 34.9 | Totals | 47.8 |