Wins leaders’ Box-Toppers points
Here is how 2019 wins leaders fared in Box-Toppers points. Players are listed by most wins. Also shown are their 2019 Box-Toppers points (BTP) and their rank in Box-Toppers points among all players.| Player | Team | W | BTP | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Verlander | Astros | 21 | 27.5 | 2 |
| 2 | Gerrit Cole | Astros | 20 | 32.2 | 1 |
| 3 | Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 19 | 11.4 | 32 |
| 4 | Domingo German | Yankees | 18 | 10.7 | 39 |
| 4 | Zack Greinke | Astros | 18 | 17.9 | 7 |
| 4 | Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 18 | 20.7 | 3 |
| 7 | Max Fried | Braves | 17 | 10.0 | 50 |
| 8 | Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 16 | 12.7 | 25 |
| 8 | Dakota Hudson | Cardinals | 16 | 7.7 | 95 |
| 8 | Charlie Morton | Rays | 16 | 18.8 | 5 |
| 8 | Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 16 | 9.4 | 58 |
| 8 | Lance Lynn | Rangers | 16 | 15.0 | 16 |
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Justin Verlander of the Astros, who led all pitchers in wins 2019 with 21, ranked second among all players in Box-Toppers points with 27.5.
Verlander’s teammate, Gerrit Cole, who led all players in Box-Toppers points in 2019 with 32.2, ranked second in wins with 20.
Of the 12 pitchers with 16 or more wins in 2019, five of them ranked among the top 10 in Box-Toppers points and 10 of them ranked among the top 50 in Box-Toppers points.
Verlander, the American League Cy Young Award winner, started 34 games in 2019 and the Astros won 24 of those games. In those 24 victories, Verlander earned the win in 21 of the games and earned Player of the Game honors in 18 of those wins. Verlander earned 1.0 Box-Toppers point for each Player of the Game honor, plus earned 9.5 bonus Box-Toppers points, including 6.0 bonus points for being overall Player of the Day six times and 3.5 bonus points for being AL Player of the Day five times.
Cole, the Box-Toppers points leader in 2019, started 33 games in 2019 and the Astros won 26 of those games. In those 26 victories, Cole earned the win in 20 of the games and earned Player of the Game honors in 17 of the wins. However, Cole earned Player of the Game honors an additional four times (for a total of 21 times) when he did not earn the win in an Astros’ victory. Despite picking up no decisions in those four games, Cole still earned Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors. Cole earned 1.0 Box-Toppers point for each Player of the Game honor, plus earned 11.2 bonus Box-Toppers points, including earning 7.0 bonus points for being overall Player of the Day seven times and 4.2 bonus points for being AL Player of the Day six times. Three of the times Cole earned AL Player of the Day honors he did it while picking up a no decision—June 7, Aug. 28 and Sept. 2.
Box-Toppers’ sincere win differential leaders
Gerrit Cole of the Astros had Box-Toppers’ highest sincere win differential (SWD) of any pitcher in 2019. Cole had an SWD of +12.2, figured by subtracting his win (W) total (20) from his Box-Toppers point (BTP) total (32.2). The higher the SWD, the more sincere and deserved are a pitcher’s wins. Here are the SWDs of all 86 pitchers who earned nine or more wins in 2019, ranked from highest to lowest SWD.| Player | Team | Wins | BTP | SWD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gerrit Cole | hou al | 20 | 32.2 | +12.2 |
| 2 | Jacob deGrom | nym nl | 11 | 19.1 | +8.1 |
| 3 | Chris Paddack | sd nl | 9 | 15.8 | +6.8 |
| 4 | Justin Verlander | hou al | 21 | 27.5 | +6.5 |
| 5 | Jack Flaherty | stl nl | 11 | 16.5 | +5.5 |
| 6 | Mike Clevinger | cle al | 13 | 17.4 | +4.4 |
| 7 | Max Scherzer | dc nl | 11 | 15.4 | +4.4 |
| 8 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | lad nl | 14 | 17.4 | +3.4 |
| 9 | Sonny Gray | cin nl | 11 | 14.4 | +3.4 |
| 10 | Shane Bieber | cle al | 15 | 18.1 | +3.1 |
| 11 | Trevor Bauer | cin nl | 11 | 14.1 | +3.1 |
| 12 | Reynaldo Lopez | chi al | 10 | 13.1 | +3.1 |
| 13 | Charlie Morton | tb al | 16 | 18.8 | +2.8 |
| 14 | Stephen Strasburg | dc nl | 18 | 20.7 | +2.7 |
| 15 | Patrick Corbin | dc nl | 14 | 16.4 | +2.4 |
| 15 | Walker Buehler | lad nl | 14 | 16.4 | +2.4 |
| 17 | Kyle Hendricks | chi nl | 11 | 13.4 | +2.4 |
| 18 | Ryan Yarbrough | tb al | 11 | 12.4 | +1.4 |
| 19 | Noah Syndergaard | nym nl | 10 | 11.4 | +1.4 |
| 20 | Madison Bumgarner | sf nl | 9 | 10.0 | +1.0 |
| 21 | Frankie Montas | oak al | 9 | 9.4 | +0.4 |
| 22 | Zack Greinke | hou al | 18 | 17.9 | -0.1 |
| 23 | Mike Minor | tex al | 14 | 13.7 | -0.3 |
| 24 | Lucas Giolito | chi al | 14 | 13.7 | -0.3 |
| 25 | Luis Castillo | cin nl | 15 | 14.4 | -0.6 |
| 26 | Joey Lucchesi | sd nl | 10 | 9.4 | -0.6 |
| 27 | James Paxton | nyy al | 15 | 14.1 | -0.9 |
| 28 | Lance Lynn | tex al | 16 | 15.0 | -1.0 |
| 29 | Steven Matz | nym nl | 11 | 10.0 | -1.0 |
| 29 | Jon Gray | col nl | 11 | 10.0 | -1.0 |
| 31 | Luke Jackson | atl nl | 9 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 32 | Masahiro Tanaka | nyy al | 11 | 9.7 | -1.3 |
| 33 | Zach Eflin | phi nl | 10 | 8.7 | -1.3 |
| 33 | Kenta Maeda | lad nl | 10 | 8.7 | -1.3 |
| 35 | Mike Soroka | atl nl | 13 | 11.4 | -1.6 |
| 36 | Zack Wheeler | nym nl | 11 | 9.0 | -2.0 |
| 37 | Julio Teheran | atl nl | 10 | 8.0 | -2.0 |
| 37 | Marcus Stroman | nym nl | 10 | 8.0 | -2.0 |
| 39 | Anthony DeSclafani | cin nl | 9 | 7.0 | -2.0 |
| 39 | Yonny Chirinos | tb al | 9 | 7.0 | -2.0 |
| 41 | Aaron Nola | phi nl | 12 | 9.7 | -2.3 |
| 42 | Tanner Roark | oak al | 10 | 7.7 | -2.3 |
| 43 | Jake Odorizzi | min al | 15 | 12.4 | -2.6 |
| 44 | Homer Bailey | oak al | 13 | 10.4 | -2.6 |
| 44 | Jose Quintana | chi nl | 13 | 10.4 | -2.6 |
| 46 | Joe Musgrove | pit nl | 11 | 8.0 | -3.0 |
| 47 | Clayton Kershaw | lad nl | 16 | 12.7 | -3.3 |
| 48 | Jose Berrios | min al | 14 | 10.7 | -3.3 |
| 49 | Brandon Woodruff | mil nl | 11 | 7.7 | -3.3 |
| 50 | Chris Bassitt | oak al | 10 | 6.7 | -3.3 |
| 51 | J.A. Happ | nyy al | 12 | 8.7 | -3.3 |
| 51 | Jordan Lyles | mil nl | 12 | 8.7 | -3.3 |
| 51 | Robbie Ray | ari nl | 12 | 8.7 | -3.3 |
| 54 | Anibal Sanchez | dc nl | 11 | 7.0 | -4.0 |
| 54 | Jeff Samardzija | sf nl | 11 | 7.0 | -4.0 |
| 56 | Caleb Smith | fla nl | 10 | 6.0 | -4.0 |
| 57 | Daniel Hudson | dc nl | 9 | 5.0 | -4.0 |
| 57 | Matthew Boyd | det al | 9 | 5.0 | -4.0 |
| 59 | German Marquez | col nl | 12 | 7.7 | -4.3 |
| 60 | Jon Lester | chi nl | 13 | 8.0 | -5.0 |
| 60 | Merrill Kelly | ari nl | 13 | 8.0 | -5.0 |
| 62 | John Means | bal al | 12 | 7.0 | -5.0 |
| 63 | Mike Fiers | oak al | 15 | 9.7 | -5.3 |
| 64 | Kyle Gibson | min al | 13 | 7.7 | -5.3 |
| 65 | Andrew Cashner | bos al | 11 | 5.0 | -6.0 |
| 65 | Michael Pineda | min al | 11 | 5.0 | -6.0 |
| 67 | Zach Davies | mil nl | 10 | 4.0 | -6.0 |
| 68 | Miles Mikolas | stl nl | 9 | 3.0 | -6.0 |
| 68 | Junior Guerra | mil nl | 9 | 3.0 | -6.0 |
| 70 | John Gant | stl nl | 11 | 4.7 | -6.3 |
| 71 | Marco Gonzales | sea al | 16 | 9.4 | -6.6 |
| 72 | Adam Wainwright | stl nl | 14 | 7.4 | -6.6 |
| 73 | Max Fried | atl nl | 17 | 10.0 | -7.0 |
| 74 | Ivan Nova | chi al | 11 | 4.0 | -7.0 |
| 75 | Jakob Junis | kc al | 9 | 2.0 | -7.0 |
| 76 | Domingo German | nyy al | 18 | 10.7 | -7.3 |
| 77 | Wade Miley | hou al | 14 | 6.7 | -7.3 |
| 78 | Martin Perez | min al | 10 | 2.7 | -7.3 |
| 79 | Eduardo Rodriguez | bos al | 19 | 11.4 | -7.6 |
| 80 | Rick Porcello | bos al | 14 | 6.0 | -8.0 |
| 81 | Brandon Workman | bos al | 10 | 2.0 | -8.0 |
| 82 | Marcus Walden | bos al | 9 | 1.0 | -8.0 |
| 83 | Dakota Hudson | stl nl | 16 | 7.7 | -8.3 |
| 84 | Mike Leake | ari nl | 12 | 3.0 | -9.0 |
| 85 | Brett Anderson | oak al | 13 | 3.0 | -10.0 |
| 86 | Antonio Senzatela | col nl | 11 | 1.0 | -10.0 |
BTP: Box-Toppers points
SWD: Sincere win differential, figured by subtracting win total from Box-Toppers point total.
About Box-Toppers’ team abbreviations
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In addition to Verlander and Cole, three other pitchers with 16 or more wins in 2019 ranked among the overall top 10 in Box-Toppers points for the season:
Zack Greinke of the Astros, who ranked tied for fourth in wins with 18 and seventh overall in Box-Toppers points with 17.9.
Stephen Strasburg of the Nationals, who ranked tied for fourth in wins with 18 and third overall in Box-Toppers points with 20.7. Strasburg led National League pitchers in both wins and Box-Toppers points in 2019.
Charlie Morton of the Rays, who ranked tied for eighth in wins with 16 and fifth overall in Box-Toppers points with 18.8.
Among the 12 pitchers with 16 or more wins in 2019, Dakota Hudson of the Cardinals had the fewest Box-Toppers points—his 7.7 points ranked 95th among all players and 41st among NL pitchers. Though Hudson had 16 wins, he had 11.1 fewer Box-Toppers points than another pitcher with 16 wins, Morton of the Rays, who had 18.8 Box-Toppers points.
How is that possible? Hudson pitched in 33 games in 2019 and the Cardinals won 23 of those games. However, Hudson only earned Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors in six of those Cardinals wins—in the other 17 wins, other Cardinals players, who were more key in the team’s victories, earned Player of the Game honors.
Morton also pitched in 33 games in 2019 and the Rays won 22 of those games. But by contrast to Hudson, Morton earned Player of the Game honors in 14 of those 22 victories—he was the player who most contributed to the Rays’ victories in those games. Among those 14 Player of the Game honors, Morton won overall Player of the Day honors twice (earning 2.0 bonus Box-Toppers points) and American League Player of the Day honors four times (earning 2.8 bonus Box-Toppers points). Morton won Player of the Game honors in 12 of his 16 wins—he earned Player of the Game honors twice when he picked up a no decision (May 2 and Sept. 20).
So though Hudson and Morton had the same win total (16), they had disparately different Box-Toppers point totals (7.7 vs. 18.8), showing that not all wins are created equal and can be a misleading statistic by which to judge pitcher performance.
Sincere Win Differential
Saying Hudson and Morton had similarly successful seasons in 2019 because they had the same win total seems a little foolish. Their Box-Toppers points total seem more reflective of their performance. But even more reflective of their relative success is a stat that compares their Box-Toppers point total to their win total—I call this the Box-Toppers’ Sincere Win Differential (SWD).
Morton’s SWD is +2.8, figured by subtracting his win total (16) from his Box-Toppers point total (18.8). Hudson, by contrast, had a -8.3 SWD (16 wins, 7.7 Box-Toppers points).
Of the 86 pitchers with nine or more wins in 2019, Gerrit Cole of the Astros had the highest SWD of +12.2—he also led all players with 32.2 Box-Toppers points and ranked second in wins with 20 (see the chart on this page Box-Toppers’ sincere win differential leaders to see all 86 pitchers ranked by SWD).
Cole’s lead in SWD was considerable. His SWD was 1.5 times as high as the second-highest, belonging to NL Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom of the Mets (+8.1, 19.1 Box-Toppers points vs. 11 wins). AL Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander of the Astros had the fourth-highest SWD (+6.5, 27.5 Box-Toppers points vs. 21 wins).
In between the two Cy Young winners was Padres pitcher Chris Paddack, who had the third-highest SWD of +6.8—he had the most Box-Toppers points (15.8) among pitchers with nine wins.
Twenty-one of the 86 pitchers with nine or more wins had a positive SWD. In other words, they had a higher number as their Box-Toppers point total than their wins total. The lowest positive SWD belonged to Frankie Montas of the Athletics, who ranked 21st with an SWD of +0.4 (9.4 Box-Toppers points, nine wins).
The lowest-ranked pitcher in SWD with nine or more wins, in 86th place, is Antonio Senzatela of the Rockies with an SWD of -10.0 (1.0 Box-Toppers point, 11 wins).
The player with the most wins who had a negative SWD was Eduardo Rodriguez of the Red Sox. He ranked third in wins with 19 but earned only 11.4 Box-Toppers points, giving him an SWD of -7.6, which ranked 79th among the 86 pitchers with nine or more wins.
About Box-Toppers—Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. In regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day.
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