Logo source: Chris Creamer’s SportsLogos.net.
(Post revised Monday, Oct. 14 after teams announced rosters for series. Notable additions: The Yankees added first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who had been injured, and also added pitcher Marcus Stroman.)
The New York Yankees, Box-Toppers’ top-ranked American League team and the top seed among AL teams in the postseason, are favored over the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Championship Series.
The Yankees have the edge in overall Box-Toppers points and in starting and relief pitchers. However, the Guardians hold a surprising edge among the likely starting nine batters.
How did they get here
Both teams are the top two-seeded AL teams in the postseason. The Yankees had the AL’s best winning percentage (.580), while the Guardians were second (.571). Both had byes from the Wild Card round of the playoffs.
In the AL Division Series, the Yankees defeated the Kansas City Royals in four games, 3-1, and the Guardians defeated the Detroit Tigers in five games, 3-2.
Both teams’ Box-Toppers team rankings
Yankees players accumulated 120.9 Box-Toppers points in 2024, fourth among all teams and most among AL teams. The Guardians had 106.3 Box-Toppers points, 13th among all teams. Despite having the second-best record among AL teams, they were sixth among AL teams in Box-Toppers rankings, behind the Seattle Mariners (fourth with 109.4 points), who did not qualify for the postseason.
The only AL postseason team ranked lower than the Guardians in Box-Toppers rankings was the Detroit Tigers (10th among AL teams and 22nd overall with 84.9 points), who the Guardians beat in the ALDS.
Key 18 players
The Yankees have the Box-Toppers points advantage among the key 18 players on the roster, which include the likely nine starting batters, three key bench players, three top starting pitchers, their top closing pitcher and two other key pitchers and/or relievers. Those key 18 players for each team are listed in the chart. Among those 18 players, the Yankees have 93.3 Box-Toppers points compared to 75.6 for the Guardians.
Top 3 starting pitchers
The Yankees hold the advantage on top three starters—26.4 points vs. 18.0 points. And the Yankees’ top three starting pitchers doesn’t even include their Box-Toppers points team leader for the season, Luis Gil, whose 17.4 Box-Toppers points is sixth among all players and second among AL pitchers. Gil got off to a hot start but struggled in the second half of the season, only earning 4.0 of those points after June 4. Gil did not pitch in the ALDS but was on the roster.
Guardians’ key starter is Tanner Bibee, whose 14.0 Box-Toppers points in 2024 was 14th overall and eighth among AL pitchers.
Yankees’ key starters used in the ALDS are Carlos Rodon, 12.7 points, 26th overall and 13th among AL pitchers, and Gerrit Cole, 9.7 points, 61st overall, 28th among AL pitchers. Despite having the fourth-highest Box-Toppers point total among Yankees pitchers, Cole is still considered the team ace. In the previous five full seasons (excluding 2020), Cole averaged 21.0 points each season and was consistently among AL pitching leaders in points. His total was halved this year after missing much of the first half of the season with an elbow injury. He earned 6.7 of his points since Aug. 16.
Two starting pitchers in the series have earned Player of the Game honors once previously this postseason: Bibee on Oct. 5 and Cole on Oct. 10.
See the chart for Box-Toppers point totals of likely starting pitchers in the series.
Starting 9 batters
Both teams occupy the top four spots in Box-Toppers’ 2024 rankings of AL batters:
Aaron Judge of the Yankees, 13.0 Box-Toppers points
Juan Soto of the Yankees, 11.0 points
Jose Ramirez of the Guardians, 9.9 points
Josh Naylor of the Guardians, 9.0 points
Though the Yankees hold the top two spots, the Guardians starting nine batting lineup has more combined Box-Toppers points than the Yankees starting nine—44.4 vs. 34.5. There is just one Guardians starting nine batter with 2.5 or fewer points in 2024 (shortstop Brayan Rocchio, 1.5), while there are six Yankees starting nine batters with 2.5 or fewer points, including shortstop Anthony Volpe, who earned 0.0 points in 2024 (though earned 1.5 in 2023).
See the chart for Box-Toppers point totals of likely starting nine batters in the series.
Key bench players
Among three key batters off the bench or used in platoon situations, the Yankees hold an edge with 8.0 Box-Toppers points compared to 2.5 for the Guardians. See the chart for details on bench players.
Key relievers
The Yankees have a big advantage among relievers mainly because Luis Gil and his 17.4 Box-Toppers points are placed there. Gil is placed there since he was not used as a starter in the ALDS and did not seem to be in the pitching rotation. That could change in the ALCS.
Another Yankees starter, Marcus Stroman, left off the ALDS roster, is listed here as well, since his 3.0 Box-Toppers points is the next-highest among available Yankees pitchers. (Stroman was named to ALCS roster.)
Both teams’ likely closers in the series have 4.0 Box-Toppers points in 2024. Emmanuel Clase of the Guardians ranks eighth among AL closers while Luke Weaver of the Yankees ranks 11th among AL closers. (Since they have the same 2024 Box-Toppers point total, they are ranked based on their 2023 point totals: Clase—6.0, Weaver—0.0.)
See the chart for details on relievers.
Conclusion
Though the Guardians and Yankees finished only two games apart in regular season standings, the Yankees come into this series seeming much more dominant. They have the clear edge among starting pitchers, an advantage that may even be stronger with the late-season emergence of their ace Gerrit Cole. Cole was out injured the first half of the season and started slow, but got better as the season progressed and has already earned Player of the Game honors once this postseason.
The Yankees also feature the literal one-two punch of the first- and second-ranked AL batters in Box-Toppers rankings—Aaron Judge and Juan Soto.
On the other hand, the Guardians’ batting lineup is stronger overall and features the “three-four” punch of the third- and fourth-ranked AL batters in Box-Toppers rankings—Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor.
Plus, even though the Yankees seem dominant in Box-Toppers pitching points, many of those points were earned early in the season by Luis Gil, who hasn’t been as dominant since June. Discounting Gil’s early season points, the contest may be closer than it appears.
AL Championship Series player comparisons
Likely starting players for the Guardians and Yankees listed by position with their Box-Toppers point total (BTP) for the 2024 regular season and their overall rank among all players. Includes likely starting nine batters, three likely bench batters, three starting pitchers, top closing pitcher and two extra pitchers:| Pos | Guardians | BTP | Rank | Pos | Yankees | BTP | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1B | Josh Naylor | 9.0 | 72 | 1B | Anthony Rizzo | 1.5 | 533 | |
| 2B | Andres Gimenez | 4.0 | 236 | 2B | Gleyber Torres | 1.5 | 541 | |
| SS | Brayan Rocchio | 1.5 | 572 | SS | Anthony Volpe | 0.0 | 948 | |
| 3B | Jose Ramirez | 9.9 | 60 | 3B | Jon Berti | 1.0 | 617 | |
| CA | Bo Naylor | 3.0 | 72 | CA | Austin Wells | 2.5 | 398 | |
| CF | Lane Thomas | 5.5 | 161 | CF | Aaron Judge | 13.0 | 21 | |
| LF | Steven Kwan | 3.5 | 282 | LF | Alex Verdugo | 1.0 | 675 | |
| RF | Jhonkensy Noel | 5.0 | 199 | RF | Juan Soto | 11.0 | 43 | |
| DH | David Fry | 3.0 | 317 | DH | Giancarlo Stanton | 3.0 | 312 | |
| PH | Kyle Manzardo | 1.5 | 565 | PH | Oswaldo Cabrera | 3.0 | 328 | |
| PH | Will Brennan | 1.0 | 667 | PH | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 2.5 | 367 | |
| PH | Austin Hedges | 0.0 | 1142 | PH | Trent Grisham | 2.5 | 378 | |
| SP | Tanner Bibee | 14.0 | 14 | SP | Carlos Rodón | 12.7 | 26 | |
| SP | Matthew Boyd | 3.0 | 331 | SP | Gerrit Cole | 9.7 | 61 | |
| SP | Alex Cobb | 1.0 | 581 | SP | Clarke Schmidt | 4.0 | 240 | |
| CP | Emmanuel Clase | 4.0 | 232 | CP | Luke Weaver | 4.0 | 255 | |
| PI | Gavin Williams | 3.7 | 266 | PI | Luis Gil | 17.4 | 6 | |
| PI | Hunter Gaddis | 3.0 | 314 | PI | Marcus Stroman | 3.0 | 294 | |
| Totals | 75.6 | Totals | 93.3 |
Back to top
ALCS Game 1, Guardians at Yankees
The pitching matchup Monday:
Guardians—Alex Cobb, 1.0 Box-Toppers point in 2024, 581st overall, 140th among AL pitchers.
Cobb missed much of the 2024 season, recovering from hip surgery, pitching in only three games. In 2023, he earned 10.0 points with the Giants, 20th among NL pitchers.
Yankees—Carlos Rodon, 12.7 points, 26th among all players, 13th among AL pitchers.
About Box-Toppers
Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. In regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day. (No Box-Toppers points are awarded in postseason games.)
Box-Toppers strives for accuracy. See a mistake in a post? A wrong name, wrong team, grammar error, spelling goof, etc.? Thanks for pointing it out! Contact Box-Toppers here. Let's fix it and make it right.
For additional updates, follow Box-Toppers on Twitter (X).
Your support via Buy Me a Coffee keeps Box-Toppers percolating. Thanks for your contributions!
Related
Box-Toppers 2024 player rankings leaders
Box-Toppers 2024 final team rankings
Previews of all four Wild Card series
Previews of the 2024 AL Division Series matchups
Previews of the 2024 NL Division Series matchups
NLCS Preview: Surging Mets favored over injury-depleted Dodgers
A Box-Toppers look at Monday’s League Champsionship Series pitching matchups
A Box-Toppers look at the upcoming day’s probable pitching matchups. Teams are paired below with visiting teams on top and home teams on the bottom. Each team’s starting pitcher is shown with their Box-Toppers point total from 2024 (’24), this year and last year (’23-24), over a six-year period (’19-24) and their career point total.Back to top
| Game | Starter | ’24 | ’23‑24 | ’19‑24 | Career |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Cobb, Alex 2916 | 1.0 | 11.0 | 26.1 | 68.9 |
| NYY | Rodon, Carlos 3494 | 12.7 | 13.7 | 47.2 | 70.3 |
* Player has yet to earn any career Box-Toppers points.
What are those numbers after players' names?
Chart is sortable. Click a column header to re-sort the chart by the values in that column. Refresh page to restore chart to default, game-by-game view.
Back to top