The Boston Red Sox hold a slight Box-Toppers points advantage over the Houston Astros in the upcoming American League Championship Series.
But the Astros have already eliminated Box-Toppers’ top-ranked AL team, the Chicago White Sox, in the league division series.
The Red Sox not only rank slightly higher than the Astros in Box-Toppers team rankings in 2021, but their core group of postseason regular players also fared better in Box-Toppers points during the season.
Of the five American League clubs that qualified for the 2021 postseason, the Astros and the Red Sox are the two lowest-ranked in Box-Toppers’ team rankings.
The Houston Astros rank 10th, with its players accumulating 114.0 Box-Toppers points during the regular season. That is worst among AL playoff teams and lowest among teams remaining in the playoffs. (Among all postseason qualifiers, only the St. Louis Cardinals, who lost the National League Wild Card Game, rank lower—in 13th place with 105.4 points.)
The Boston Red Sox fare only slightly better than the Astros, in ninth place with 115.9 Box-Toppers points. Both the Astros and Red Sox rank behind the eighth-place Toronto Blue Jays (116.0), who did not qualify for the postseason. They also rank behind AL teams they have collectively defeated in the playoffs: The Chicago White Sox (second overall with 124.9 points), the New York Yankees (sixth with 119.8) and the Tampa Bay Rays (seventh with 116.4).
The Red Sox made the ALCS by beating the Yankees in the Wild Card game and the Rays in the AL Division Series. The Astros made the ALCS by winning the AL Division Series against the White Sox, Box-Toppers’ overall second-ranked team.
The Astros host Games 1 and 2 and host up to four games in the best-of-seven game series, while the Red Sox will host up to three.
Probable players—The Red Sox hold a slight advantage over the Astros when comparing overall cumulative Box-Toppers points during the season. The advantage is greater when comparing each team’s core group of 18 players who have been appearing regularly in the postseason so far.
As shown in the chart below, the group of 18 Red Sox players have a combined 95.7 Box-Toppers points, compared to a comparable group of 18 Astros players with a combined 87.1 points.
Starting pitchers—The Red Sox hold the advantage among starting pitchers.
Nathan Eovaldi leads Red Sox pitchers with 14.1 Box-Toppers points, 16th overall and sixth among AL pitchers. Also likely starters for the Red Sox: Eduardo Rodriguez (10.0 Box-Toppers points, 47th overall, 17th among AL pitchers) and Chris Sale (2.0 Box-Toppers points, 440th overall, 124th among AL pitchers). (Sale was recovering from Tommy John surgery early in the season, debuted Aug. 14 and made nine starts. He does rank third among active AL pitchers in career Box-Toppers points with 144.6.)
Luis Garcia leads Astros pitchers with 10.0 Box-Toppers points, 49th overall and 18th among AL pitchers. Also likely starters for the Astros: Lance McCullers Jr. (8.7 Box-Toppers points, 68th overall, 25th among AL pitchers) and Framber Valdez (5.0 points, 175th overall, 58th among AL pitchers).
McCullers had to exit Game 4 of the AL Division Series against the White Sox with forearm tightness and reports indicate he will not be available during the ALCS.
Starting batting lineup—The Red Sox also have the edge among the likely starting batting lineup. The Red Sox likely starting nine batters have 47.7 combined Box-Toppers points, compared to 42.7 for the starting nine Astros batters.
The Red Sox top-ranked batter is designated hitter J.D. Martinez, whose 10.7 Box-Toppers points is second among AL batters. The Red Sox have three players among Box-Toppers’ top 10 AL batters: Martinez, shortstop Xander Bogaerts (8.5 points, ranked fifth) and third baseman Rafael Devers (7.5 points, ranked eighth).
The Astros top-ranked batter is right fielder Kyle Tucker, whose 7.2 Box-Toppers points is 12th among AL batters.
Bench—The top three likely reserve batters for the Red Sox have 7.9 Box-Toppers points while the Astros’ top three have 3.0.
Relief pitching—The Astros hold the edge here, but with McCullers likely out for the series, other pitchers currently designated as relievers may have to take his place.
Astros top three “relievers” have 17.7 Box-Toppers points, compared to 14.0 for the Red Sox.
The Astros have recently used Ryan Pressly as a closer. He has 3.0 Box-Toppers points, 12th among AL closers. The Red Sox have recently used Garrett Whitlock as their closer. He has 3.0 Box-Toppers points, 19th among AL closers. However, Matt Barnes has the most Box-Toppers points among all Red Sox who have served as closers this year (5.0, 6th among AL closers), but has no points since early June and slumped late in the season.
One pitcher that could take McCullers’ starting role for the Astros is Zack Greinke, who has the same 8.7 Box-Toppers point total as McCullers, but who hasn’t earned Player of the Game honors since mid-August.
American League Championship Series Game 1, Red Sox vs. Astros
The pitching matchup Friday:
Red Sox—Chris Sale, 2.0 Box-Toppers points, 440th among all players, 124th among AL pitchers.
This is Sale’s second 2021 postseason appearance. He started in the ALDS Game 2 win over the Rays on Oct. 8, but lasted only one inning.
Astros—Framber Valdez, 5.0 Box-Toppers points, 175th among all players, 58th among AL pitchers.
This is Valdez’s second 2021 postseason appearance. He started in the ALDS Game 2 win over the White Sox on Oct. 8.
About Box-Toppers—Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. In regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day.
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AL Championship Series player comparisons
Likely starting players for the Red Sox and Astros listed by position with their Box-Toppers point total (BTP) for the 2021 regular season and their overall rank among all players. Includes likely starting nine batters, three likely bench batters, three starting pitchers, top closing pitcher and two extra pitchers:| Pos | Red Sox | BTP | Rank | Pos | Astros | BTP | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1B | Kyle Schwarber | 4.5 | 213 | 1B | Yuli Gurriel | 3.5 | 272 | |
| 2B | Christian Arroyo | 2.5 | 386 | 2B | Jose Altuve | 6.5 | 126 | |
| SS | Xander Bogaerts | 8.5 | 73 | SS | Carlos Correa | 7.0 | 102 | |
| 3B | Rafael Devers | 7.5 | 84 | 3B | Alex Bregman | 3.5 | 277 | |
| CA | Christian Vazquez | 1.0 | 594 | CA | Martin Maldonado | 4.0 | 250 | |
| CF | Enrique Hernandez | 3.5 | 273 | CF | Jake Meyers | 1.0 | 766 | |
| LF | Alex Verdugo | 3.5 | 276 | LF | Michael Brantley | 3.0 | 315 | |
| RF | Hunter Renfroe | 6.0 | 138 | RF | Kyle Tucker | 7.2 | 93 | |
| DH | J.D. Martinez | 10.7 | 40 | DH | Yordan Alvarez | 7.0 | 104 | |
| PH | Bobby Dalbec | 5.4 | 171 | PH | Chas McCormick | 2.0 | 496 | |
| PH | Travis Shaw | 2.5 | 376 | PH | Aledmys Diaz | 1.0 | 666 | |
| PH | Danny Santana | 0.0 | 951 | PH | Jason Castro | 0.0 | 1073 | |
| SP | Nathan Eovaldi | 14.1 | 16 | SP | Luis Garcia | 10.0 | 49 | |
| SP | Eduardo Rodriguez | 10.0 | 47 | SP | Lance McCullers Jr. | 8.7 | 68 | |
| SP | Chris Sale | 2.0 | 440 | SP | Framber Valdez | 5.0 | 175 | |
| CP | Garrett Whitlock | 3.0 | 351 | CP | Ryan Pressly | 3.0 | 301 | |
| PI | Tanner Houck | 6.0 | 132 | PI | Zack Greinke | 8.7 | 69 | |
| PI | Nick Pivetta | 5.0 | 184 | PI | Cristian Javier | 6.0 | 136 | |
| Totals | 95.7 | Totals | 87.1 |