Box-Toppers picks the Los Angeles Dodgers to win the 2025 World Series, beating the predicted American League champion Baltimore Orioles.
Box-Toppers 2025 preseason predictions
Box-Toppers picks the Dodgers to beat the Orioles in the 2025 World Series. Here is the predicted order of finish of all 30 teams in their divisions and their projected win total.| American League | |||||||
| EAST | Wins | CENTRAL | Wins | WEST | Wins | ||
| Orioles | 89 | Royals | 89 | Mariners | 89 | ||
| Yankees* | 89 | Tigers* | 87 | Astros | 85 | ||
| Blue Jays | 86 | Guardians* | 87 | Rangers | 78 | ||
| Red Sox | 83 | Twins | 79 | Angels | 71 | ||
| Rays | 70 | White Sox | 40 | Athletics | 71 | ||
| National League | |||||||
| EAST | Wins | CENTRAL | Wins | WEST | Wins | ||
| Mets | 96 | Cubs | 89 | Dodgers | 108 | ||
| Phillies* | 95 | Brewers | 89 | D‑Backs* | 97 | ||
| Braves | 89 | Reds | 85 | Padres* | 96 | ||
| Nationals | 71 | Pirates | 81 | Giants | 74 | ||
| Marlins | 43 | Cardinals | 74 | Rockies | 50 | ||
| * Wild card | |||||||
| ALCS: Orioles over Mariners | |||||||
| NLCS: Dodgers over Mets | |||||||
| World Series: Dodgers over Orioles | |||||||
Box-Toppers projects the Dodgers will have the most wins among all teams—108—and that National League teams will be among the most dominant. Eight of the 15 NL teams are projected to have as many or more wins as the best American League teams (89).
The Dodgers are picked to win the National League pennant, beating the New York Mets (96 wins) in the NL Championship Series.
The Orioles are forecast to win the American League pennant, winning 89 games. They are projected to beat the Seattle Mariners (also with 89 wins) in the AL Championship Series.
Here is a look at how Box-Toppers sees each division race playing out:
AL East—The Orioles are projected to win a tight race with the New York Yankees. Both teams are projected with 89 wins with the Orioles given a slight edge. The Toronto Blue Jays (86 wins) and Boston Red Sox (83 wins) will contend, with the Tampa Bay Rays bringing up the rear (70 wins). Box-Toppers projects the Yankees will be the AL’s top Wild Card team with a fourth-seed in the AL playoffs.
While the Yankees led Box-Toppers preseason rankings among AL teams (posted March 20), that ranking was based entirely upon players’ 2024 Box-Toppers point totals. The win projections and division-by-division team rankings, shown here, are based on a formula that considers players’ Box-Toppers point totals going back to 2020, with added weight given to more recent statistics.
Also since the preseason rankings were posted, the Orioles bolstered their roster by signing free agent pitcher Kyle Gibson, who earned 7.4 Box-Toppers points in 2024 with the Cardinals, 42nd among NL pitchers and has 35.5 points since 2020, currently 21st among AL pitchers.
AL Central—The Kansas City Royals are projected to win the division with 89 wins, the same predicted total for all three AL divisional champions. Box-Toppers projections rank the Royals third among the AL divisional winners, making them the third-seed in the AL postseason.
Close behind the Royals are the Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland Guardians (both with 87 wins). Both are projected as postseason teams with the Tigers given a slight edge to win the second AL Wild Card (fifth seed) with the Guardians as the AL third Wild Card team (sixth and lowest seed).
The Minnesota Twins are projected to win 79 games and the lowly Chicago White Sox, who had one of the worst seasons in modern Major League history in 2024—with 41 wins—are projected to win one fewer—40.
AL West—The Mariners are projected to win the division with 89 wins and become the second-seeded AL team in the postseason, winning a first-round bye to avoid the Wild Card round.
The Houston Astros are projected in second with 85 wins, vying for playoff contention but falling short. The Texas Rangers are projected to win 78, with the Los Angeles Angels and Athletics, now of West Sacramento, California, bringing up the rear with 71 wins each.
NL East—The New York Mets are projected to rise to win the division with 96 wins, boosted by their acquisition of free agent Juan Soto from the Yankees (11.0 Box-Toppers points, second among AL batters), finishing as the NL’s second-seeded playoff team.
The Philadelphia Phillies will finish close behind with 95 wins. And while that win total would be enough to claim top spot in four of the six divisions, it will only be good enough for the Phillies to serve as the NL’s third Wild Card team with the sixth and lowest NL playoff seeding.
The Atlanta Braves are projected to finish third with 89 wins, out of playoff contention. The Washington Nationals (71 wins) and Miami Marlins (43 wins) bring up the rear.
NL Central—The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers are both projected to win 89 games with the Cubs given the slight edge to win the division and serving as the third-seeded NL playoff team. The Brewers will finish out of Wild Card contention.
The Cincinnati Reds are projected to finish third with 85 wins, the Pittsburgh Pirates in fourth with 81 wins and the St. Louis Cardinals in fifth with 74 wins.
NL West—Three teams in this division are projected to have the most wins among all teams, the Dodgers, the Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Diego Padres. Yet, the Dodgers are also expected to win the division by the largest margin (11 games) in any of the six divisions.
The Dodgers are projected to win 108 games, most among all teams, boosted by their signing of top offseason free agent Blake Snell from the Giants. Snell earned 15.7 Box-Toppers points in 2024, seventh overall and fifth among NL pitchers. The Dodgers also return Shohei Ohtani, who earned 11.0 points in 2024, first among NL batters. (Ohtani is also expected to pitch again in 2025. Past seasons in which Ohtani both pitched and batted for the Angels had him ranked among the top three overall players in 2022 and 2023.)
The Diamondbacks are projected to win 97 games, second-most among all teams, still 11 games behind the Dodgers. But they are forecast to be top NL Wild Card team and the fourth-seeded NL playoff team.
The Padres are projected to win 96, third in the division and second NL Wild Card team, the fifth-seeded NL playoff team.
The San Francisco Giants (74 wins) and Colorado Rockies (50 wins) are projected to finish fourth and fifth.
NL/AL imbalance
Box-Toppers projects National League teams will win a total of 1,237 games (50.9 percent) while American League teams will win 1,193 (49.1 percent). Players on current AL team rosters accumulated a total of 1,338.8 Box-Toppers points in 2024, while players on current NL team rosters accumulated 1,460.1 points. That gives the NL a 52.2 percent-to-47.8 percent advantage.
All five projected 90 win teams are in the NL (Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Mets, Padres and Phillies), but two of the projected 100-loss teams are also in the NL (Marlins with 119 losses and Rockies with 112 losses). (The AL White Sox are the only other 100-loss team with a projected, record-breaking 122 losses.)
Here is a look at Box-Toppers projections for all 12 postseason spots (as seen in the 2025 preseason playoff picks graphic on this page):
American League
Top seed—East Division Champion Baltimore Orioles, receiving a bye in the AL Wild Card Round (89 wins).
Second seed—West Division Champion Seattle Mariners, receiving a bye in the AL Wild Card Round (89 wins).
Third seed—Central Division Champion Kansas City Royals (89 wins).
Fourth seed—Top AL Wild Card New York Yankees (89 wins).
Fifth seed—Second-ranked AL Wild Card Detroit Tigers (87 wins).
Sixth seed—Third-ranked AL Wild Card Cleveland Guardians (87 wins).
National League
Top seed—West Division Champion Los Angeles Dodgers, receiving a bye in the NL Wild Card Round (108 wins).
Second seed—East Division Champion New York Mets, receiving a bye in the NL Wild Card Round (96 wins).
Third seed—Central Division Champion Chicago Cubs (89 wins).
Fourth seed—Top-ranked NL Wild Card Arizona Diamondbacks (97 wins).
Fifth seed—Second-ranked NL Wild Card San Diego Padres (96 wins).
Sixth seed—Third-ranked NL Wild Card Philadelphia Phillies (95 wins).
Wild Card Round
Here are Box-Toppers’ picks in the Wild Card Round:
American League
Third-seed Royals over sixth-seed Guardians.
Fourth-seed Yankees over the fifth-seed Tigers.
National League
Sixth-seed Phillies over third-seed Cubs.
Fourth-seed Diamondbacks over the fifth-seed Padres.
Division Series
In each league’s Division Series, the winner of the 3-6 Wild Card Round plays the league’s second seed and the winner of the 4-5 Wild Card Round plays the top seed.
American League
Second-seed Mariners over third-seed Royals.
Top-seed Orioles over fourth-seed Yankees.
National League
Second-seed Mets over sixth-seed Phillies.
Top-seed Dodgers over fourth-seed Diamondbacks.
And as previously mentioned, Box-Toppers projects the Orioles over the Mariners in the ALCS and the Dodgers over the Mets in the NLCS, with the Dodgers beating the Orioles in the World Series.
Method of projecting
Box-Toppers’ win projections and team rankings are largely similar to Box-Toppers’ first-to-30th list of teams in its preseason rankings. However, the team rankings are based only on players’ 2024 Box-Toppers point totals. As mentioned earlier, these win projections and division-by-division team rankings are based on a formula that considers players’ Box-Toppers point totals going back to 2020, with added weight given to more recent statistics.
Biggest projected increase, decrease in team wins
Here are the top five teams in Box-Toppers projected win improvement from 2024 to 2025:
Blue Jays, from 74 in 2024 to 86 in 2025, +12.
Dodgers, from 98 in 2024 to 108 in 2025, +10.
Angels, from 63 in 2024 to 71 in 2025, +8.
Reds, from 77 in 2024 to 85 in 2025, +8.
Diamondbacks, from 89 in 2024 to 97 in 2025, +8.
Despite making big gains, three of these five teams are not projected by Box-Toppers to make the postseason: Blue Jays, Angels and Reds.
Here are the top five teams projected to have the largest win decline from 2024 to 2025, none of which are projected to make the postseason:
Marlins, from 62 in 2023 to 43 in 2025, -19.
Rockies, from 61 in 2024 to 50 in 2025, -11.
Rays, from 80 in 2024 to 70 in 2025, -10.
Cardinals, from 83 in 2024 to 74 in 2025, -9.
Giants, from 80 in 2024 to 74 in 2025, -6.
Box-Toppers picks for postseason awards
Box-Toppers, as a member of the Internet Baseball Writers Association (IBWAA), submitted these preseason picks to be amalgamated among all members with consensus results to be announced as the season begins.
Members were also invited to submit choices for 2025 postseason awards. While our picks for team standings are at least based on Box-Toppers points data from previous seasons, these picks for individual awards are more speculative.
However, our “reasonable” projection in 2024 would have had the Dodgers beating the Astros in the World Series. (At least the Dodger part was right). And we did get one speculative player award correct in preseason 2024, picking Emmanuel Clase of the Guardians to be AL reliever of the year. (All our other player award projections were wrong and in the end, Clase, though he won postseason AL reliever awards, was not among Box-Toppers’ top-ranked AL relievers—his 4.0 Box-Toppers points ranked eighth among AL closers.)
So let me throw out some names and see if anything sticks:
AL Most Valuable Player—Bobby Witt Jr., Royals. He had 8.9 Box-Toppers points in 2024, fifth among AL batters.
NL Most Valuable Player—Juan Soto, Mets. He finished second among AL batters in 2024 Box-Toppers points with 11.0, behind his Yankees teammate Aaron Judge (13.0). Moving back to the NL, Soto will strive to prove he’s worth the big free-agent contract.
AL Cy Young Award—Garrett Crochet, Red Sox, who finished 23rd among AL pitchers in 2024 with the White Sox. I wouldn’t normally pick someone ranked so low, but Crochet’s total was affected by the White Sox lack of wins and also his limited starts (32). He should get more starts with a better team. (I already regret not saying Tarik Skubal of the Tigers to repeat, but I refuse to unravel my Crochet yarn now.)
NL Cy Young Award—Zack Wheeler, Phillies. He led all players in 2024 with 24.1 Box-Toppers points. Last year, I picked the previous year’s Box-Toppers leader, Spencer Strider of the Braves, to win the NL Cy Young. He made two starts before having to undergo season-ending elbow surgery.
AL Rookie of the Year—Tomoyuki Sugano of the Orioles. Even if he has a good season, no one will pick him for this honor because he’s 35 years old and has pitched 12 seasons in Japan’s top professional league. But I’ll pick him, just like I picked the overlooked Shota Imanaga of the Cubs (30 years old, eight seasons in Japan) as 2024 NL Rookie of the Year. Imanaga finished fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting, despite having Box-Toppers’ most dominant season ever as a rookie, since Box-Toppers tracking began in 1995. Sugano has already won Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors twice during spring training—on March 9 (when he was overall Player of the Day) and March 14.
NL Rookie of the Year—I’m turning entirely Japanese for the rookie awards, selecting Roki Sasaki of the Dodgers for the NL honor. Sasaki, 23, has pitched four seasons in Japan, and won Box-Toppers Player of the Game honors once during spring training, on March 4.
AL Reliever of the Year—Josh Hader, Astros, who led AL closers in 2024 with 11.0 Box-Toppers points.
NL Reliever of the Year—Ryan Helsley, Cardinals, who led NL closers in 2024 with 12.0 Box-Toppers points.
About Box-Toppers
Box-Toppers tracks who most helps their team win the most games. Using standard box score statistics, Box-Toppers uses a simple formula to determine a Player of the Game for each Major League Baseball game played. That player is the person who contributed most to his team’s win. In regular season games, players earn 1.0 Box-Toppers point for being named Player of the Game and can earn bonus points for being Player of the Day or top player or batter in their league for the day.
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